Quant Mashup Common Misconceptions About Momentum [Dual Momentum]Momentum is one of the most researched topic in financial market literature. A search of the SSRN database on momentum will turn up around 1000 papers written over the past three years and 3000 papers in total. With so much information available, it should not be surprising that many analysts have(...) Smart Beta or Smart Marketing? [Factor Research]Smart beta ETF investors seem to ignore empirical evidence Excess returns from smart beta are substantially different from factor returns Smart beta ETFs offer little diversification for an equity-centric portfolio INTRODUCTION Assets under management in smart beta products surpassed $1 trillion in(...) Failing Slow, Failing Fast, and Failing Very Fast [Flirting with Models]For most investors, long-term “failure” means not meeting one’s financial objectives. In the portfolio management context, failure comes in two flavors. “Slow” failure results from taking too little risk, while “fast” failure results from taking too much risk. In his book, Red Blooded(...) Speed Check! Juilia Vs R Back Test Script [Flare 9x]In a quest for speed enhancements over R. I opted to look at the Julia language. It is a high level programming language touting similar speed to C. I find the syntax not at all that different from Python and R. If you have knowledge of the ‘how’ to solve many problems using those languages, the(...) A Strategy For Each Day of the Week. Seriously? [Build Alpha]A different strategy for each day of the week? Sounds crazy, but is it? I have wrote about “Turnaround Tuesday” before: https://www.seeitmarket.com/turnaround-tuesday-wall-street-cliche-media-fiction-17013/ This simple strategy is actually at new highs since this was published over 10 months(...) Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees in the Search for Portfolio Diversifiers [Invest Resolve]Returns to the simplest domestic capitalization weighted indexes have dominated virtually all active strategies over the nine years since the Global Financial Crisis. It’s not hard to understand why many investors have opted to eschew active strategies altogether, and instead have migrated en(...) Tail Risk Hedging: An Alternative Approach to Risk Management [Alpha Architect]This article proposes tail risk hedging (TRH) as an alternative model for managing risk in investment portfolios. The standard risk management approach involves a significant allocation to hiqh-quality bonds. However, this approach has historically reduced expected returns over the long term (see(...) When Breaking up is Easy To Do [Factor Investor]This post is a bit of an experiment. My good friend Steven Wood and I started discussing some collaborations a few months ago. We hope that it ups the quality of our research and also brings some new insights into each of our philosophies. Below is his recent post, for which I helped provide some(...) Stitching data for a more 'balanced' backtest [Better System Trader]When traders set in-sample and out-of-sample periods for their backtests, it’s common just to pick some dates that split the data into a pre-defined percentage or range. The trouble with this approach is that it often doesn’t take into account the type of market environments that exist in those(...) Isolation forest: the art of cutting off from the world [Quant Dare]We have talked about outliers several times in this blog. Examples include how to detect them or how to transform the data to remove them. Here we have another technique to detect outliers in our big data set: the isolation forest algorithm. The idea behind the isolation forest method The name of(...) On The Diversification Dangers of DIY Tactical Asset Allocation [Allocate Smartly]We wanted to take a moment to highlight two must read posts from Newfound Research. Newfound is a thought leader in the TAA space and we highly recommend following them now. The Diversification Dangers of DIY Tactical – and – Diversifying the What, How, and When of Trend Following Newfound(...) What is Bitcoin's Fair Value? [Quantpedia]We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least(...) Timing Country Exposure with Value: A Valuation Measure Horserace [Alpha Architect]Buy cheap. This is a motto many live by, not only in their daily lives but also in their investment philosophy. Historically, “buying cheap” stocks was a good idea (i.e., the so-called “value” premium). But how might valuation matter when it comes to country allocations? In other words,(...) How to Perform Investment Sentiment Analysis on Twitter [Alpha Architect]What are the research questions? By studying tweets on thirty companies in the Dow Jones Index, the authors ask the following research question: Is it possible to develop a system for the detection and discovery of the popularity of special events on Twitter that may influence the financial markets?(...) The most important plot in finance [Mathematical Investor]In this post we look at the one plot that proves that technical analysis (TA) is useless. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND HOROSCOPES As volatility has made a come back in recent months, investors have sought advice to asset managers. In many instances, such advice consists in technical indicators. Charles(...) Diversifying the What, How, and When of Trend Following [Flirting with Models]Naïve and simple long/flat trend following approaches have demonstrated considerable consistency and success in U.S. equities. While there are many benefits to simplicity, an overly simplistic implementation can leave investors naked to unintended risks in the short run. We explore how investors(...) Factor Olympics Q1 2018 [Factor Research]2018 started negative for the majority of factors Momentum, Quality and Growth showed the strongest performance Low Volatility, Dividend Yield and Value generated negative returns INTRODUCTION We present the performance of seven well-known factors on an annual basis for the last 10 years and the(...) Tactical Asset Allocation in March [Allocate Smartly]This is a summary of the recent performance of a wide range of excellent tactical asset allocation strategies. These strategies are sourced from books, academic papers, and other publications. While we don’t (yet) include every published TAA model, these strategies are broadly representative of(...) A Simple System For Hedging Long Portfolios [Relative Value Arbitrage]In this post, we are going to examine a trading system with the goal of using it as a hedge for long equity exposure. To this end, we test a simple, short-only momentum system. The rules are as follows, Short at the close when Close of today Cover at the close when Close of today > lowest Close(...) Research Review | 30 March 2018 | Portfolio Analysis [Capital Spectator]Factor Momentum Robert D. Arnott (Research Affiliates), et al. January 31, 2018 Past industry returns predict the cross section of industry returns, and this predictability is at its strongest at the one-month horizon (Moskowitz and Grinblatt 1999). We show that the cross section of factor returns(...) Trading rules that keep you trading [Alvarez Quant Trading]I have written the difficulty in trading and testing short strategies. I had stopped trading my short strategy because it was too hard to trade psychologically for me. About nine months ago, I revisited my short strategy to see how it had been doing since I stopped and of course it has been doing(...) Holy Bullish Thursday!! [Quantifiable Edges]Stock market performance leading up to and around many holidays has often been bullish. This is something I have written about several times over the years. Holy Thursday is one such day that has done quite well. I have shown Holy Thursday stats a few times in the past. The chart and statistics(...) Newfound 2018 March Madness: Final Four Update [Flirting with Models]We outlined the full set of rules for the Newfound 2018 March Madness Brackets here. After two more rounds, we are down to the Final Four in our Newfound 2018 March Madness Bracket Challenge, and while the right hand side of the bracket looks predictable with two number 1 seeds facing off (Kansas(...) R – Quantifying Trend Days [Flare 9x]In this post I will be using R and data.table to extract all trend up / down days. The following method was used to quantify a trend day: 1. Trend up = Close price closes within 25% of the days high 2. Trend down = Close prices closes within 25% of the days low 3. Exclusive of gaps, if open is above(...) How Algo Trading Reacts to Market Stress [Quantpedia]A key issue raised by the rapid growth of computerised algorithmic trading is how it responds in extreme situations. Using data on foreign exchange orders and transactions that includes identification of algorithmic trading, we find that this type of trading contributed to the deterioration of(...) Risk-Based Explanations for the Momentum Premium [Alpha Architect]Most of the literature on the momentum factor has focused on behavioral explanations, generally either investor underreaction or overreaction. For example, in his paper “Explanations for the Momentum Premium,” Yale University professor Tobias Moskowitz points out: Underreaction results from(...) Protect & Participate: Managing Drawdowns with Trend Following [Flirting with Models]Trend following is an investment strategy that buys assets exhibiting strong absolute performance and sells assets exhibiting negative absolute performance. Despite its simplistic description, trend following has exhibited considerable empirical robustness as a strategy, having been found to work in(...) Factor Exposure Analysis: Dow Jones [Factor Research]Factor exposure should be considered a source of returns as well as of risk Factor biases can be measured top-down or bottom-up The results of the two approaches do not necessarily reconcile INTRODUCTION Factor investing has become immensely popular in recent years and assets in smart beta products(...) Tax Efficient Tactical Asset Allocation [Allocate Smartly]New to Tactical Asset Allocation? Learn more: What is TAA? In our previous post, we looked at the tax impact of TAA for investors trading in taxable accounts. Using our database of more than 40 published TAA models we concluded that, while TAA as a whole has been relatively tax efficient, the(...) Two Centuries of Momentum [Flirting with Models]A momentum-based investing approach can be confusing to investors who are often told that “chasing performance” is a massive mistake and “timing the market” is impossible. Yet as a systematized strategy, momentum sits upon nearly a quarter century of positive academic evidence and a century(...) What’s Cheap? A Factor Perspective [Factor Investor]There are a hundred ways to evaluate whether an investment is cheap--discounted cash flows, competitor multiples, mean reversion, multiple of projected earnings--the list goes on...and on. To each his own on what is the "best" valuation methodology, but suffice it to say that the(...) Machine Learning Modelling in R Cheat Sheet [R Trader]I came across this excellent article lately “Machine learning at central banks” which I decided to use as a basis for a new cheat sheet called Machine Learning Modelling in R. The cheat sheet can be downloaded from RStudio cheat sheets repository. As the R ecosystem is now far too rich to(...) Momentum Everywhere, Including in Factors [Alpha Architect]Momentum is the tendency for assets that have performed well (poorly) in the recent past to continue to perform well (poorly) in the future, at least for a short period of time. In 1997, Mark Carhart, in his study, “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance,” was the first to use momentum,(...) Liquidity Creation in a Short-Term Reversal Strategies and Volatility Risk [Quantpedia]We show, both theoretically and empirically, that liquidity creation induces negative exposure to volatility risk. Intuitively, liquidity creation involves taking positions that can be exploited by privately informed investors. These investors' ability to predict future price changes makes(...) When NDX Has Closed At A Multi-Week Low On A Fed Day [Quantifiable Edges]As far as Fed Days go, Wednesday was a disappointment. Not only did it fail to rally, but it also left SPX and NDX at 10-day lows. With Fed Days typically bullish, finishing at a 10-day low is quite unusual. The results table below is part of a larger examination I did in last night’s Subscriber(...) New Book from Marcos Lopez de Prado: Advances in Financial Machine Learning [Amazon]Machine learning (ML) is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. Today ML algorithms accomplish tasks that until recently only expert humans could perform. As it relates to finance, this is the most exciting time to adopt a disruptive technology that will transform how everyone invests for(...) Review: Advances in Financial Machine Learning [Mathematical Investor]Two of the most talked-about topics in modern finance are machine learning and quantitative finance. Both of these are addressed in a new book, written by noted financial scholar Marcos Lopez de Prado, entitled Advances in Financial Machine Learning. In this book, Lopez de Prado strikes a well-aimed(...) Newfound 2018 March Madness: Sweet 16 Update [Flirting with Models]We outlined the full set of rules for the Newfound 2018 March Madness Brackets here. We have two rounds in the bag in this year’s March Madness bracket competition, and what a wild ride it’s been: 16 seed UMBC made history by beating 1 seed Virginia, edging them out by a mere 20 points… The(...) Stock Buybacks are Bad? What About the Alternative [Alpha Architect]Recently there has been a fairly active discussion within the financial media on the topic of stock buybacks, or share repurchases. This is probably due to the recent tax reform, which has caused many to question where companies will spend their additional profits now that firms (on average) will be(...) Fed Day Performance In Rising vs Falling Rate Environments [Quantifiable Edges]The Fed holds policy meetings 8 times per year. Many times since starting Quantifiable Edges in 2008, I have discussed the (primarily bullish) edge that exists on the final day of these meetings when the Fed releases its statement and announces any new policy changes. One question I often get about(...) You Are Not a Monte-Carlo Simulation [Flirting with Models]Even when an investment has a positive expected average growth rate, the experience of most individuals may be catastrophic. By focusing on the compound average growth rate, we can see the median realizations – which account for risk – are often more crucial decision points than ensemble(...) Factor Portfolios: Turnover Analysis [Factor Research]Some ETF investors claim that passive index products are superior to actively managed funds due to lower turnover and therefore less transaction costs. While this is partially true, most investors are unlikely to be familiar that indices such as the S&P 500 have a relatively high amount of(...) When Bullish Opex Weeks Fail To Play Out [Quantifiable Edges]I discussed last weekend that monthly option expiration (opex) week is typically a bullish week, especially during the months of March, April, October, and December. Obviously, the bullish tendency did not play out this past week. So does this mean the bullish tendency may be delayed a week? Or is(...) Interest rate swap returns: empirical lessons [SR SV]Interest rate swaps trade duration risk across developed and emerging markets. Since 2000 fixed rate receivers have posted positive returns in 26 of 27 markets. Returns have been positively correlated across virtually all countries, even though low yield swaps correlated negatively with global(...) Does indexing threaten the market? [Mathematical Investor]Index investing has grown significantly over the past 30 years. Back in 1990, few were even aware of the option for indexing, and options were limited mostly to a handful of conventional mutual funds tracking the U.S. S&P 500 index. In 1993, Boston’s State Street Global Advisors launched the(...) Is The US Stock Market Overvalued? Depends on which Model You Ask [Alpha Architect]When stock prices reach a new high, investors start asking the question: Are stocks overvalued? To answer this question, investors have developed several alternative equity valuation models. Typically, each of this models compares the stock market’s current price level to a benchmark. Among(...) Volume and Volatility: A Tale of Two Vols [Quant Fiction]Outside of price action, two of the most popular market characteristics analyzed are volume and volatility. Volatility is often used to determine market regime, while the traditional use for volume is to confirm price movement. This post will investigate the relationship between these two(...) Do Relative-Value Strategies Beat Traditional Systematic Value Investing Strategies? [Alpha Architect]Readers often send us great questions related to different ideas on systematic value strategies. The outcome of years of back and forth with readers and internal discussions is several books and hundreds of blog posts on the subject of value investing. So…What have we learned? We’ve learned a(...) Demystifying the Hurst Exponent with Cryptocurrencies [Quant Dare]Is the bitcoin market (Ethereum, Dash and Litecoin) efficient? After reading the paper, “Persistence in the cryptocurrency market”, which tries to answer that question, I was challenged by a colleague to replicate its results. This led me to write this post to highlight the great variability of(...) Profiling Correlations For The Major Asset Classes [Capital Spectator]The case for holding a portfolio that’s diversified across markets and asset classes is built on the assumption that return correlations will remain below 1.0 (perfect positive correlation) by more than a trivial degree. To the extent that you own assets that move independently of one another(...)