Quant Mashup Is Equity Pairs Trading Profitable Due to Cointegration? [Quantpedia]We study the theoretical implications of cointegrated stock prices on the profitability of pairs trading strategies. If stock returns are fairly weakly correlated across time, cointegration implies very high Sharpe ratios. To the extent that the theoretical Sharpe ratios are "too large,"(...) News Buzz Impacts Stock Returns [Raven Pack]To bridge the gap between the quantitative community and discretionary investors, RavenPack launched the latest edition of its self-service data and visualization platform back in Fall 2017 - making it easier to create custom daily indicators on top of RavenPack’s granular data. Indicators which(...) Three Trading "Truths" Quantified [Build Alpha]I want to discuss three trading “truths” that I often heard but when I finally got into testing ideas found them to be myths. These discoveries were instrumental in turning my trading around. For those that know my story, it was not all roses and rainbows – what trading story is?!? I actually(...) Newfound's 2018 March Madness Bracket Challenge [Flirting with Models]Bracket templates can be downloaded here. Bracket submissions must be sent here with a subject of "March Madness 2018" by 11:59PM Eastern time on Wednesday March 14, 2018. On the heels of ReSolve’s past four years of progressive March Madness bracket challenges, we are pleased to take(...) Tactical Asset Allocation and Taxes [Allocate Smartly]Tactical asset allocation, by its nature, generates more transactions than buy & hold. Investors trading in taxable accounts would be justifiably concerned that the negative tax consequences of that might outweigh the benefits of TAA by shifting returns to less advantageous short-term capital(...) Worried about extreme down markets? Consider formal portfolio risk models [Alpha Architect]Are there variations in the methods that funds use to manage risk? Do hedge funds practicing risk management outperform other funds during periods of financial crisis? Are there differences in the type of risk management practices in terms of performance? Are there competing explanations that may(...) March Madness for Investors [Flirting with Models]Over the past few years, ReSolve Asset Management has progressively worked to develop new and exciting rules for the March Madness bracket tournament. While the stakes may be much lower than in investing, many of the lessons we have learned translate well to portfolio construction and strategy(...) Algorithmic trading is here to stay [R Trader]A foreword for the regular reader: this article has nothing to do with R With the increase of market “electronification”, algorithmic trading is becoming more and more popular. As a result, the regulator has paid a particular attention to this activity in the MIFID II regulation, designing a(...) Equity Factors and GDP Growth [Factor Research]Economic cycles have a clear impact on factor performance Some factors show pro-cyclical while others highlight anti-cyclical characteristics Given that real GDP is not published in real-time, it is unlikely effective for factor selection INTRODUCTION Financial commentators frequently explain a(...) Today’s Employment-Sparked NASDAQ Rally Appears To Be A Short-Term Bullish Indication [Quantifiable Edges]The employment report has helped to spark a big rally today, and the NASDAQ is hitting new all-time highs. I looked back at other instances where the NASDAQ spiked higher and closed at a new high on the day of an employment report. The results I saw were compelling. Here are the list of instances(...) Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades [Quantpedia]This paper shows that currency carry trades can be rationalized by the time-varying risk premia originating from the sovereign solvency risk. We find that solvency risk is a key determinant of risk premia in the cross section of carry trade returns, as its covariance with returns captures a(...) Machine learning is simply statistics [Eran Raviv]Note: I usually write more technical posts, this is an opinion piece. And you know what they say: opinions are like feet, everybody’s got a couple. Machine learning is simply statistics A lot of buzz words nowadays. Data Science, business intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, statistical(...) Are Long/Short Equity Strategies Worth the Fees? [Alpha Architect]High net worth individuals, university endowments, and public pension funds have heavily invested in long/short equity hedge funds. But is the long/short equity asset class benefiting investors? The pitfalls of expensive financial products are well documented in the academic literature; however, the(...) State of Trend Following in February [Au Tra Sy]The State of Trend Following index opened the year with strong returns, but February brought the index down with a strong negative performance. Please check below for more details. Detailed Results The figures for the month are: February return: -8.16% YTD return: -1.94% Below is the chart(...) Thinking in Long/Short Portfolios [Flirting with Models]Few investors hold explicit shorts in their portfolio, but all active investors hold them We (re-)introduce the simple framework of thinking about an active portfolio as a combination of a passive benchmark plus a long/short portfolio. This decomposition provides greater clarity into the often(...) Macroeconomic factors and Tactical Asset Allocation [Alpha Architect]The literature shows that macroeconomic factors can drive asset returns, however, economists and investment teams operate independently. In this paper, the authors attempt to bring macroeconomic discipline to tactical asset allocation by highlighting macroeconomic “dashboards:” The authors(...) Cryptocurrencies with Python eBook: Apr 15 [Quant At Risk]It is my pleasure to deliver a long-awaited QaR ebook on the introduction to blockchain and cryptocurrencies with Python on April 15, 2018. In the book we will cover inter alia the fundamental aspects of blockchain in general; the craze around cryptocoins like Bitcoin, Ether, LiteCoin, etc.; their(...) Testing the Efficiente Index [Allocate Smartly]This test is based on the Efficiente Index from JP Morgan. A variation of this strategy is available via the ETF EFFE. The strategy uses traditional mean-variance optimization (aka the “Efficient Frontier”) to trade a broad basket of asset classes, but it’s actually a momentum strategy in(...) Dividend Yield Combinations [Factor Research]According to MorningStar assets under management of smart beta products breached $1 trillion in 2017 and more than half of the assets were invested in just three factors: Value, Growth and Dividend Yield. Naturally there is a significant amount of empirical evidence that suggests Value stocks(...) The New Short Volatility Instrument Landscape [QuantStrat TradeR]This post will discuss the consequences of ProShares’ decision to change the investment objective of SVXY, and possible alternatives that various investors can use to try and create an identical exposure if their strategy calls for such an instrument. So, to begin with, Proshares recently decided(...) Hidden Markov Modelling of Synthetic Periodic Time Series Data [Dekalog Blog]I am currently working on a method of predicting/projecting cyclic price action, based upon John Ehlers' sinewave indicator code, and to test it I am using Octave's implementation of a Hidden Markov model in the Octave statistics package hosted at Sourceforge. Basically I measure the(...) SPX Performance After Three 1% Down Days [Quantifiable Edges]Last night I looked at 3-day pullbacks a number of ways in relation to current market conditions. I thought blog readers might find the following interesting. I noted that SPX closed lower by greater than 1% for the 3rd day in a row on Thursday. In the past, that has often been followed by gains the(...) Tactical Asset Allocation in February [Allocate Smartly]This is a summary of the recent performance of a wide range of excellent tactical asset allocation strategies. These strategies are sourced from books, academic papers, and other publications. While we don’t (yet) include every published TAA model, these strategies are broadly representative of(...) Excess VIX: A Predictive Volatility Model [Quant Fiction]The events of the past month, most notably the implosion of XIV, has focused public interest on volatility as an asset class. They’ve also illustrated that short vol as a strategy might be a little more risky than advertised (gasp!). The VIX is supposed to serve as a gauge of how much uncertainty(...) Size and Value Factor Performance in Pakistan Stock Exchange [Azam Yahya]The main objective is to identify and understand cross-sectional patterns in expected stock returns in PSX(Pakistan Stock Exchange). Our reasons for doing so are simple. First, to effectively execute empirical asset pricing research, it is important to have a deep understanding of the(...) XIV Barbell Strategy [Alvarez Quant Trading]Well that was fun! I have been telling my trading buddy and anyone else that would listen that I fully expected XIV to open at zero one day. Now I did not expect it to happen so soon or the way it did. I trade a strategy that can be long XIV or long VXX or in cash. Because of the very likely(...) Retail Short Sellers: Trading Skill or Insider Trading? [Alpha Architect]What are the research questions? This study uses a new classification system for informed vs. uninformed retail trades: short selling stocks without options available indicates more informed trading than short selling stocks with options available. Is there a difference in returns between shorted(...) Is a 4% Down Day a Black Swan? [Relative Value Arbitrage]wn Day a Black Swan? On February 5, the SP500 experienced a drop of 4% in a day. We ask ourselves the question: is a one-day 4% drop a common occurrence? The table below shows the number of 4% (or more) down days since 1970. 4% down 4% down and bullish From 1970 40 5 On average, a 4% down day(...) A Two-Day SPY Pattern Suggesting A Bullish Edge For Wednesday [Quantifiable Edges]SPY gapped up and closed lower Tuesday after leaving an unfilled up gap on Monday. This triggered a simple study that I have examined a number of times over the years in the subscriber letter. The study can be found below. 2018-02-28 The numbers here all look solidly bullish, suggesting a potential(...) The Diversification Dangers of DIY Tactical [Flirting with Models]After 2008, tactical ETF strategies rose in popularity. We often come across advisors who self-implement their own tactical strategies, using simple measures of momentum and trend. We believe that thoughtful implementation of tactical strategies requires admission that tactical choices will be wrong(...) Factor Construction: Portfolio Rebalancing [Factor Research]Factor portfolios do not benefit significantly from intra-month rebalancing However, too infrequent rebalancing leads to lower risk-return ratios The robustness of factor performance at different rebalancing periods is one of the advantages of factor investing INTRODUCTION Creating factor portfolios(...) The Negative Impact Of Friday’s Low Volume [Quantifiable Edges]I mentioned in a Tweet on Friday that the low volume on Friday’s rally was a bit concerning. The study below is one I featured in the subscriber letter this weekend. It examined other times substantial rallies occurred during uptrends on very light volume. 2018-02-25 Stats here suggest a downside(...) Algorithm design and correctness [Quantum Financier]Giving software you wrote access to your or your firm’s cash account is a scary thing. Making a mistake when manually executing a trade is bad enough when it happens (you can take my word for it if you haven’t yet), but when unintended transactions are made by a piece of software in a tight loop(...) Asset Allocation Roundup [Allocate Smartly]Recent asset allocation articles (tactical or otherwise) that you might have missed: 40 Shades of Tactical Asset Allocation Across Bull And Bear Markets (Earl Adamy) Earl walks readers though his own approach to finding the best TAA strategies using the data available in our members area. We try not(...) Are Factors Better and More Diversifying Than Asset Classes? [Alpha Architect]Factor investing promises outperformance at low cost. But to add value in a portfolio, it must deliver positive risk-adjusted returns and with low correlation to existing holdings. Historically, pure factor exposures have earned similar risk-adjusted returns to buying and holding plain vanilla asset(...) Algotopian [Backtrader]Following ideas, proposals, pushes and comments similar and disimilar to those, for example, in this post Community - What is the direction of backtrader, the last weeks have been used to craft an idea about the potential future of backtrader. It has been named Algotopian and it’s being shared(...) Podcast: Managed Futures and Trend-Following with Dr. Kaminski [Alpha Architect]Here is a link to our podcast on Behind the Markets Wes and Jeremy chat with Katy Kaminski, Visiting Lecturer in Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management and co-author of the book, “Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha.” They discuss trend following and managed(...) CTA allocations, QE, meta-prediction, and conditional return distributions [Investment Idiocy]As most of you know my last proper job (part time lecturing and occasional consulting gigs do not count) was managing the fixed income portfolio for AHL, a large systematic hedge fund. I had the pleasure of that job from late 2010 until mid 2013. It's fair to say that the main topic of(...) Explaining the Value Effect in Emerging Markets [Alpha Architect]What are the research questions To most readers, it’s no surprise that our ears perk up a little bit anytime someone attempts to broaden the understanding of the value anomaly. The precise reason why high book to market equities have higher expected returns has been a long-standing debate among(...) Survivorship bias: an investment decision trap [Quant Dare]Survivorship bias is one of the most common biases in finance, and it’s easy to fall victim to it. Let’s find out how to remain vigilant and overcome this hurdle. “History is written by the victors”. – Winston Churchill A cognitive bias is a consequence of subjective judgement. When it(...) Mixed Copula Pairs Trading Strategy [Quantpedia]We carry out a study to evaluate and compare the relative performance of the distance and mixed copula pairs trading strategies. Using data from the S&P 500 stocks from 1990 to 2015, we find that the mixed copula strategy is able to generate a higher mean excess return than the traditional(...) Creating a Table of Monthly Returns With R and a Volatility Trading Interview [QuantStrat TradeR]This post will cover two aspects: the first will be a function to convert daily returns into a table of monthly returns, complete with drawdowns and annual returns. The second will be an interview I had with David Lincoln (now on youtube) to talk about the events of Feb. 5, 2018, and my philosophy(...) How to Evaluate Multi-Asset Strategies [Alpha Architect]What are the research questions? Institutional Investors are increasingly allocating to multi-asset strategies (p.17 ) as they seek to access greater diversity, liquidity, and reduced volatility (survey results from Greenwich Associates, 2015). The main research questions of the paper are as(...) Stress Testing an Intraday Strategy Through Monte Carlo Methods [Flare 9x]This is an intraday ES strategy that I was testing for a client. The client was not interested in it due to the low frequency of trades, hence I may post it for others to view. It shows how a strategy was proved through stress testing and looking for optimal conditions to apply the strategy. The(...) Mixture Model Trading (Part 5 - Algorithm Evaluation with pymc3) [Black Arbs]See . This research demonstrates a systematic trading strategy development workflow from theory to implementation to testing. It focuses on the concept of using Gaussian Mixture Models as a method for return distribution prediction and then using a simple market timing strategy to take advantage of(...) Sequential Model: Sorting by 5 Factors [Factor Research]The sequential model ranks stocks by factors sequentially Allows investors to prioritise factors and results in concentrated portfolios However, the factor sequence matters and only a few factors can be considered INTRODUCTION In a recent research report we showed how investors can combine factors(...) Sunday Marks the Quantifiable Edges Subscriber Letter’s 10th Anniversary [Quantifiable Edges]Sunday Feb 18th marks the 10th anniversary of the Quantifiable Edges Subscriber Letter. I can hardly believe I have been writing it for 10 years, but it is true. A few highlights and anecdotes from the last 10 years… · When the letter began, there was not even a website – just a blogspot blog(...) A Closer Look At The Links For Stocks, Interest Rates, And Inflation [Capital Spectator]Does history offer a reason to be cautious on the outlook for stocks if inflation and interest rates are rising? Yes, sort of, according to a New York Times article published on Thursday. Hedging just a bit, the Times piece relates that “it’s long been a truism that higher inflation and its(...) Spx Low Vol Streak, Update [Voodoo Markets]Spx had a rather long streak of low volatility. There is no predictive value or signal here, i just wanted to eyeball & visualize how long the low vol streak lasted and how it compared to other low vol streaks. Here are all the Spx low vol streaks (close to close change > +/-1%) that lasted(...) Follow Through Days That Occur With Moderate Breadth & Moderate Volume Have Struggled Historically [Quantifiable Edges]One notable bit of evidence that emerged on Wednesday was the fact that it qualified as an IBD Follow Through Day (FTD). I have done a lot of research on FTDs over the years. Much of that research can be found on the blog. Here is a link. 2018-02-15 The failure rate here is substantial no matter how(...)