Superstatistical Fluctuations in Time Series of Leverage Returns

Generalized Statistical Mechanics for Superstatistical Systems

From Time Series to Superstatistics

Transition from Lognormal to Chi-square Superstatistics for Financial Time Series

To install Systematic Investor Toolbox (SIT) please visit About page. The Momentum and Markowitz: A Golden Combination (2015) by Keller, Butler, Kipnis paper is a review of practitioner’s tools to make mean variance optimization portfolio a viable solution. In particular, authors suggest and test:

Now, I had a very interesting discussion this week… I was fortunate enough to speak with David Bush, an extraordinary, seasoned trader with 20 years experience in financial markets. David comes from a non-traditional background, and what I mean by this; he has no formal education in the field of

The Steady Vol strategy tries to keep your portfolio's returns stable while slowly accruing returns over the long term. To that end I used the Vix to predict vol over the next month in order to adjust exposure up or down and stabilise short term returns. Turns out realised vol based on the

It's been a while since my latest Forex Trading Diary update. I've been busy working on the new QuantStart Jobs Board and so I've not had as much time as usual to work on QSForex, although I have made some progress! In particular I have been able to add some new features including:

I really don't like the high yield asset class. Not just in the current environment with near-low historical yields and the potential for material liquidity issues, but in general. As an asset class, I think the high yield asset class: Often caters to unsophisticated investors that only look at

Long-term uptrend in yields? $TLT

This post looks at a standard (STD) one-lot iron condor on the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), initiated at 38 days-to-expiration (DTE). The results in this post were derived from approximately 3200 individual trades entered by the backtester. For background on the setup for the backtests, as well as the

After the big down day last Tuesday the market has not done a lot. In fact, it has closed within the true range of that 1 bar every day for the last week. The bears failed to follow through on that selloff, but the bulls have not managed to move the SPX back out of the range either. This triggered

With last month’s failed (so far) breakout in the U.S. equity market, stocks are relegated once again to range-bound status. Essentially the market has gone nowhere since the beginning of the year and, by some measures, 2015 has been the quietest start to a year in over a century. One

Level, Slope and Curve Factor Model for Stocks

Gogi Grewal is an engineer and astute financial analyst who has been following my work for a number of years. He has an excellent grasp of dual momentum. Since Gogi lives in Canada, he decided to research the best way for non-US investors to utilize dual momentum. Gogi has generously offered to

Forbes outlines one of Ben Graham’s basic value investment strategies and analyzes how it has performed from 1949 through 2012. Even with all of the fiscal cliff and European debt drama in 2012, the Graham-based portfolio has had a particularly good year. While the S&P 500 has notched a solid

I. Trading Strategy Concept: Trend-following trading strategy based on a simple price momentum. Source: Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Research Goal: Performance verification of the price momentum model. Specification: Table 1. Results:

Another successive down month for the index. Enough to take it into negative territory for the year. Please check below for more details. Detailed Results The figures for the month are: May return: -2.38% YTD return: -2.62% Below is the chart displaying individual system results throughout May:

We recently published an article on S&P's Indexology blog that looks at some of the more practical aspects of harvesting the size premium - a premium earned by owning smaller stocks. In our U.S. Factor Defensive Equity strategy, we hold ETFs that aim to capture premiums from value, size,

May 2015: Trend Following DOWN -2.67% — YTD: +4.99% The downward consolidation continues in May with a negative month. The index still stays positive Year-To-Date. Below is the full State of Trend Following report as of last month. Performance is hypothetical. Chart for May: Wisdom State of Trend

Metals stocks poised to bounce back $XME

In Episode 7 of the BetterSystemTrader podcast Rob Hanna from Quantifiable Edges discusses a market behaviour where the strength of the NASDAQ often leads strength in other markets. Here is what Rob had to say: Well one indicator I like to use that I have shown on the blog years ago and it is part

We would venture that there is a strong correlation between the amount of ink spilled about an asset class or sector and its volatility. So given that the energy sector fell nearly 5.5% in the last month without much interest is somewhat curious. Or, is it? First, let's establish whether our

#8 - FX Momentum #14 - Momentum Effect in Stocks #21 - Momentum Effect in Commodities #118 - Time Series Momentum Effect Authors: Goyal, Jagadeesh Title: Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Tests of Return Predictability: What Is the Difference? Link:

I only started drinking coffee when I started working crazy hours. Not to keep awake but as an excuse to pop out of the office for a few minutes and suck in some fresh air. Either coffee or cigarettes, thank goodness not the latter. In any case, I recently read about a guy who is reverse engineering

he graph shows the all-time high on the S&P500, since year 1957 to 2015, and the line is moving and in close-up one can see how long each ATH has been going on. However, this is a smaller picture of the graph and the real is very big and I will not put it out due to the size. Longest ATH in a

Over the last four blog posts we looked at eight different exit approaches for a standard SPX iron condor with 25 point wings. These exits included: STD - NA%:NA% - exit at 8 DTE. STD - NA%:50% - exit if the trade has a profit of 50% of its initial credit OR 8 DTE. STD - 100%:50% - exit if the trade

Ignore the Margin Debt Alarm The margin debt alarm has seemingly been sounded every few months when investors realize absolute levels of margin debt has reached new all-time highs (inferring that risk taking has too reached all-time high levels and stocks are at risk). This brief post highlights why

The first formal asset pricing model—the capital asset pricing model—was built on certain assumptions, including that investors are risk-averse; will maximize the expected utility of absolute wealth; and care only about the mean and variance of return. However, academic research has found that

Gary Antonacci has over 35 years experience as an investment professional focusing on underexploited investment opportunities. His award-winning research on momentum investing combines relative strength price momentum with trend following absolute momentum. He is recognized as a foremost authority

This excerpt is from the book Global Asset Allocation now available on Amazon as an eBook. If you promise to write a review, go here and I’ll send you a free copy. —- “We have a passion for keeping things simple.” – Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman Berkshire Hathaway Why not just invest along

In science. Proper science. Scientists are told to report the investigations that lead nowhere. Why is this important? One. So people don't unknowingly waste time down the same dead and can learn from the experience of others. Two. When you count the dead ends, sometimes statistical tests

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet track the 10 month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber’s book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term

This excerpt is from the book Global Asset Allocation now available on Amazon as an eBook. If you promise to write a review, go here and I’ll send you a free copy. —- Harry Browne was an author of over 12 books, a one-time Presidential candidate, and a financial advisor. The basic portfolio that

If you’ve followed this blog for awhile, you may have noticed that we don’t cover fundamental or economic data too often. That is for a good reason: we don’t use it, at all. Occasionally, however, a data point will cross the radar that piques our interest for whatever reason. So it is with the

A little over a month ago I travelled to Harvard to speak to Michael Parzen’s business statistics class on Deep Value and the acquirer’s multiple. Here is the recording of that talk. You can get a free list of the best deep value stocks in the largest 1000 names on The Acquirer’s Multiple. Buy

Old school German and Austrian professors operate on 'academic time'. When you are told to meet at 3, they really mean a quarter past. You wouldn't want to reverse the tables though. Better to be a quarter of an hour too early than too late. I never got the hang of academic time. Same

This excerpt is from the book Global Asset Allocation now available on Amazon as an eBook. If you promise to write a review, go here and I'll send you a free copy. -- "I know that there are good and bad environments for all asset classes. And I know that in one's lifetime, there will

The following are the list of funds or trading firms using artificial intelligence or machine learning for their research and trading purposes. There are probably a lot more than this but many prefer to stay very quiet. The list and info here is compiled from public sources amongst the links

Few people that work in the financial world actually live in the now. Some live at the last month end; others at 't-1'. Only silicon, mad men and chattering Tweeters live on the edge. Following on from the Flow and Statelessness post, I used Lazy.js, a CORS proxy and the Markit On Demand

Test of Covariance Matrix Forecasting Methods

Investors should know what they are buying and why they are buying it. Unfortunately, more often than not, investment products are jammed down the throats of unsuspecting victims who are either ignorant, easy to influence, and/or don’t really care. We highlighted an extreme example of this in the

How consistent are Momentum returns? This is among the most frequently asked questions about Momentum (and about any investment strategy for that matter). One way to answer this question is to look at the following table from a white paper published by RBC Capital Markets. According to their

This post looks at a standard (STD) one-lot iron condor on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), initiated at 80 days-to-expiration (DTE). The results in this post were derived from approximately 3200 individual trades entered by the backtester. For background on the setup for the backtests, as well as the

#2 - Asset Class Momentum - Rotational System #3 - Sector Momentum - Rotational System #8 - FX Momentum #14 - Momentum Effect in Stocks #15 - Momentum Effect in Country Equity Indexes Authors: Geczy, Samonov Title: 215 Years of Global Multi-Asset Momentum: 1800-2014 (Equities, Sectors, Currencies,

Multivariate Conditional Outlier Detection

Feature Selection Risk

Sparse Signals in the Cross-Section of Returns

To install Systematic Investor Toolbox (SIT) please visit About page. Following is code and plots used in RFinance 2015 presentation. We will use a C++ function to compute Lagged Correlations from the Run Leadership Rcpp post. First, let’s load historical prices for S&P 500. Please note that

I love the tingling sensation when some new idea or revelation becomes clear. Perhaps not 100% clear, but you get close enough that you can almost taste it. That happened to me when I read about the Pythagorean interpretation of special relativity. Nice to understand 20th century physics first in