Quant Mashup - Jay on the Markets
A Seasonal Play in Financial Stocks [Jay On The Markets]
As I wrote about here, here, here and yes, here (and, um, also here), the holiday season tends to be a good time to invest in the stock market in general and in specific sectors in particular (with that pesky fly in the ointment, monkey in the wrench, pain in the rear caveat that “there are no
- 8 years ago, 9 Dec 2015, 04:04am -
Real Estate = A Real Good Time [Jay On The Markets]
OK, I will admit I am a bit late with this one. I’ll go ahead and blame “The Holidays”. Anyway, if you were wondering when it might be a good time to hold real estate stocks, the answer might well be, um, “Now”. (Jay Kaeppel Interview at BetterSystemTrader.com) Favorable Seasonal Period
- 8 years ago, 30 Nov 2015, 11:19pm -
Santa Claus is Coming to Town (I Hope!!) [Jay On The Markets]
The renowned “Santa Claus Rally” is second only to “Sell in May” in generating a flood of articles from us “market analyst types”. But I haven’t seen too many Santa Claus Rally articles so far this year so I’ve decided to try to beat the crowd. Plus “rally time” is (hopefully)
- 8 years ago, 15 Nov 2015, 12:08pm -
Daylight is Bad for Gold Stocks (Apparently) [Jay On The Markets]
Well, at least as far as I can tell. To understand what I am talking about consider the following results generated using daily open/high/low/close data for ticker GDX (an ETF that tracks gold mining stocks). Figure 1 displays the cumulative $ gain/loss achieved by holding 100 shares of ticker GDX
- 8 years ago, 5 Nov 2015, 02:44pm -
An Update on Jay’s Pure Momentum Sector Fund System [Jay On The Markets]
Today’s article is an update on this oldie but goodie. When people ask me if momentum investing “works”, at this point – because I am older and (even) crankier than I used to be – I typically refer them to the linked article above and grunt “decide for yourself.” Sorry, it’s just my
- 8 years ago, 18 Sep 2015, 11:01am -
T-Bonds and the End of August [Jay On The Markets]
As I have written about in the past (here, here and here) the last five trading days of the month tend to be “the best of times” for t-bonds. T-bonds have showed a particularly strong historical tendency to perform well during the last five days of August. First the chart, then the numbers.
- 8 years ago, 13 Aug 2015, 03:57am -
Margin Debt – Bad or Beautiful? [Jay On The Markets]
Well here I go again breaking one of my own cardinal rules again – i.e., being critical of someone else’s writing. Must be getting cranky in my old age. Anyway, I recently read an article calling margin debt “an indicator that predicts nothing.” No the writer is actually technically correct
- 8 years ago, 24 Jul 2015, 06:56pm -
Beating the Market with Two Simple Cycles (Part 1) [Jay On The Markets]
If I were to say to you the following: “The only thing that matters in the stock market is whether the 40-week cycle and/or the 212-week cycle is bullish”, chances are you would say either: a) “Wow Jay, that’s very interesting analysis. Have you considered taking some time off?” OR, if you
- 8 years ago, 13 Jul 2015, 12:41pm -
A Mid-Summer's Night(mare for) Beans [Jay On The Markets]
Grain prices have a long record of exhibiting seasonal price trends. This is due primarily to the fact that the planting, growing and harvesting cycle in the Midwest remains the same year in and year out. In a nutshell: *Planting begins in early spring *Growing takes place during the summer
- 8 years ago, 9 Jul 2015, 11:52am -
Trading Stocks using Bonds [Jay On The Markets]
In case you are new to this game or just in case you never noticed, there are a lot of ways to play this game. This article details one. I can’t honestly say that this is a good strategy – the test period is relatively short, it uses leverage so it is risky, and drawdowns may be more than some
- 8 years ago, 23 Jun 2015, 07:34pm -
The Stock Market Black Hole (formerly known as “Summer”) [Jay On The Markets]
Just in case you somehow missed the 12,356 obligatory “Sell in May” related articles (alas, including this one), let me just say either: You didn’t financial articles very often do you? or Congratulations on recovering from your coma and Welcome Back! Either way, the gist of conventional
- 8 years ago, 5 Jun 2015, 06:18pm -
How to Put the Fizz Back in Coke (Part 3) [Jay On The Markets]
An Actual (Theoretical) Approach to Trading KO So let’s assume two traders took the following approaches to trading KO starting on 12/31/1981, each with $1,000: *Trader A bought $1,000 worth of KO stock and held it through 6/2/2015. *Trader B bought and held KO stock twice a year, during the two
- 8 years ago, 4 Jun 2015, 01:03pm -
Good News Bonds, Bad News Bonds [Jay On The Markets]
First the (potential) good news. The (potential) good news is that one trend in bonds that I wrote about a while back here and here may finally (potentially) be playing out the “right way.” Although, as there are still three more trading days left in the month of May, it is clearly a little
- 8 years ago, 27 May 2015, 03:46am -
Will Natural Gas Soar With the Wind in June? [Jay On The Markets]
See Jay’s recent post: One More Plunge for Crude Oil? OK, my last article (Will Natural Gas Break Wind in June?) did sound a little apocalyptic regarding the prospects for natural gas in June. But maybe that did not present the full picture. While that previous article did detail a bearish
- 8 years ago, 21 May 2015, 12:09pm -
Will Natural Gas Break Wind in June? [Jay On The Markets]
See Jay’s recent post: One More Plunge for Crude Oil? If you are an ardent believer in the phrase “if something looks too good to be true it probably is”, then you’d better brace yourself. Because a “sure-fire, can’t miss, you can’t lose” thing is on the horizon in natural gas. Well
- 8 years ago, 20 May 2015, 04:22am -
An Update/Clarification to a ‘Simple Pattern’ for Trading [Jay On The Markets]
It’s been (alas, correctly) brought to my attention that my description of the “Simple Pattern” I wrote about was, um, not so simple. To wit, the author writes: “Not every Day 1 signal generates an entry signal. If the 2nd trading day after the “close below previous low” (Day 3) does not
- 8 years ago, 14 May 2015, 12:29pm -
A ‘Simple Pattern’ for Trading [Jay On The Markets]
As I admitted in my last post, I am a something of a trading “systemaholic”. And yes, on many occasions I have started out with a simple idea and by the time I was done I had 600 lines of code and only a vague recollection of what that original simple idea was. So take it from me: While
- 8 years ago, 13 May 2015, 01:41pm -
One of My Favorite Websites for Trading Systems and Ideas [Jay On The Markets]
A while back I got over my addiction to Elliott Wave analysis. I finally realized I needed help and joined a five wave, er, step program. But some obsessions still linger. As an admitted "systemaholic" ("Hi, my name is Jay") I am always on the lookout for new ways to make money
- 8 years ago, 12 May 2015, 02:30pm -
‘Sell in May’ Article #2,106 [Jay On The Markets]
Yes it’s May and that is an exciting time for us financial writer types as we stumble over one another in our haste to post our obligatory “Sell in May and Go Away” related articles. As you can see, at #2,106 (for the record just sort of a ballpark guess – but probably pretty close to
- 8 years ago, 4 May 2015, 02:44pm -
How to Avoid Losing 95% in Ford [Jay On The Markets]
No, we’re not talking resale value here (in which case losing 95% of your original investment is a distinct possibility). We are talking about stock ownership. In a nutshell, the answer is fairly simple: *It is OK to drive a Ford in late summer into fall. But it is NOT OK (apparently) to own Ford
- 8 years ago, 27 Apr 2015, 01:56pm -
About those Best Days in Bonds…. [Jay On The Markets]
I have written a couple of articles recently about “Good Days in Bonds.” One period of note is the last 5 tradng days of the month. In the articles I brushed with a broad stroke – to avoid exceeding a certain level of curve-fitting – including all 12 months. For the record though, FYI, not
- 8 years ago, 23 Apr 2015, 12:18pm -
More Good Days for Bonds [Jay On The Markets]
Back in March I wrote an article called “Good Days for T-Bonds” that basically highlighted the fact that the last five trading days of the month have historically been the best time to be long t-bonds. And so of course, Murphy immediately invoked his pesky rule and the last five days of March
- 8 years ago, 21 Apr 2015, 10:18am -
A Risky (but Darned Exciting) Strategy for T-Bond Traders [Jay On The Markets]
Before I detail any sort of “strategy” (and please note that the use of the word “strategy” and the lack of the words “mechanical trading system guaranteed to generate obscene profits ad infinitum into the future”) let me address a few questions that have come up since I wrote this
- 9 years ago, 15 Mar 2015, 12:35pm -
Good Days for T-Bonds [Jay On The Markets]
A short one this time around. Anyway, many traders are familiar with the effects of seasonality in the stock market. If you would like to know more may I recommend this link? But far fewer traders are aware that bonds have displayed several meaningful and useful seasonal trends. For example…. The
- 9 years ago, 11 Mar 2015, 02:40pm -
The MVCI Indicator Mystery is Solved [Jay On The Markets]
In a recent article I wrote about an indicator that I read about somewhere that I had written down only as “MVCI”. Well, thanks to alert reader Gary, I have come to learn that I read about in the March 2013 issue of one of my favorite magazines, “Technical Analysis of Stocks and
- 9 years ago, 6 Mar 2015, 09:12pm -
The MVCI (Whatever That Means) Indicator [Jay On The Markets]
Some people tell me that I have “too much time on my hands” because I spend so much time “crunching numbers.” I tell them “That’s ridiculous, I don’t have any time on my hands because I am so busy crunching numbers” (That usually shuts them up. At least for a little while). In any
- 9 years ago, 26 Feb 2015, 10:34am -
Let’s Keep This Cornfidential [Jay On The Markets]
A short while back I wrote about the seasonal tendency for soybeans to advance in price between early February and mid-June. Well I hate to anger the commodity gods by something stupid like “So far, so good” but, well, oops, I just did. As you can see in Figure 1, well, so far so good (now
- 9 years ago, 24 Feb 2015, 11:07am -
It “Bean” a Good Time of Year [Jay On The Markets]
In case you were not aware of it, I have a “thing” for seasonal trends. Certain commodities are especially well known for exhibiting “seasonal” – or “cyclical”, if you prefer – trends. I’ve talked a bit recently about crude oil and energies here and here. Another market that fits
- 9 years ago, 17 Feb 2015, 07:52pm -
26% a Year in 3 Easy Trades? [Jay On The Markets]
Some trading strategies make intuitive sense. Other trading strategies do not. With some trading strategies it is possible to articulate some logical reason or reasons regarding why they might be expected to work well over time. With others trading strategies, well, not so much.
- 9 years ago, 6 Feb 2015, 04:03pm -
Is It Time to Buy Energies? [Jay On The Markets]
A quick glance at Figure 1 is enough to scare the daylights out of most sane investors.fsenx 1 Figure 1 – SPDR Energy (ticker XLE) (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert) Thanks primarily to Saudi Arabia’s desire to “boost market share” by putting a lot of oil producers around the globe “out of
- 9 years ago, 2 Feb 2015, 06:50am -
A Time for Crude and a Time, um, Not for Crude? [Jay On The Markets]
I like to think of myself as a creative, independent thinker. Of course I’d also like to think of myself as handsome, charming and witty and look how that’s worked out. But I digress. Anyway, on my Twitter feed last week I posted a link to a piece from Stock Trader’ Almanac regarding a
- 9 years ago, 20 Jan 2015, 01:55pm -