Quant Mashup [Academic Paper] Acceleration Effect and Gamma Factor in Asset Pricing (improved Momentum) [@Quantivity]Acceleration Effect and Gamma Factor in Asset Pricing (improved Momentum) Economics, Mathematics, & Common Sense [Alphamaximus]Almost all calculations in finance involve using log returns rather than % returns. There are a number of reasons why log returns are preferred. Estimating beta doesn’t seem like a special case. But when you go through the math, something doesn’t quite add up.(...) Benford's Law [Factor Wave]Benford's Law states that in many naturally occurring groups of numbers, the small digits are seen disproportionately often. This is often applied to the leading digits of data but it is more general than that. This was first noticed by the astronomer Simon Newcomb (who also should be famous(...) Backtesting Data Independence [John Orford]Light is the most precious resource to a photographer, everything you can do with your camera is budgeted by the amount of light available. Financial analysis is similarly constrained by the amount of data available. So more available data is always good. With Big 'O' Sharpe you can(...) Strategy Replication – Nonlinear SVMs can systematically identify stocks with high and low future returns [Mintegration]I’ve replicated the following academic paper from my favourite journal; • Title: Nonlinear support vector machines can systematically identify stocks with high and low future returns • Authors: Ramon Huerta, Fernando Corbacho, and Charles Elkan • Journal: Algorithmic Finance (2013) 45-58 45,(...) Introduction to Hypothesis Driven Development — Overview of a Simple Strategy and Indicator Hypotheses [QuantStrat TradeR]This post will begin to apply a hypothesis-driven development framework (that is, the framework written by Brian Peterson on how to do strategy construction correctly, found here) to a strategy I’ve come across on SeekingAlpha. Namely, Cliff Smith posted about a conservative bond rotation(...) The Employment Report Overnight Hot Streak [Overnight Edges]I have shown the study below a several times in the past, but not for a while. It examines the recent performance in the overnight futures market on nights the Employment Report has been released since the summer of 2012. The Employment Report is released at 8:30 AM Eastern (normally the 1st Friday(...) State of Trend Following: August keeps the Summer rebound going [Wisdom Trading]August 2015: Trend Following UP +2.36% — YTD: +8.94% The Summer bounce seen last month continued in August, with a positive monthly return pushing the YTD performance further up in the black. The last ten days of the month saw two strong days taking the index close to a +10% return, followed by(...) Institutional Trading as a Predictor [Factor Wave]It seems reasonable that institutional trades could influence stock returns. Any large trades will move prices. In fact, a fairly common trading strategy is to try to detect the presence of large institutional trades in order to piggy-back on the flow. Also, large institutions have access to a lot(...) Are Size and Momentum economically significant in international stock markets [Quantpedia]#14 - Momentum Effect in Stocks #25 - Small Capitalization Stocks Premium Anomaly Authors: Schmidt, Von Arx, Schrimpf, Wagner, Ziegler Title: Size and Momentum Profitability in International Stock Markets Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2642185 Abstract: We study the link(...) RUT Strangle - Backtest Results Summary [DTR Trading]Over the last six blog posts we looked at the backtest results for over 13,700 options strangles sold on the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). Eight different exit approaches were tested on these strangles, including: Strangle (100:50) - exit if the trade has a loss of 100% of its initial credit OR if the(...) Systems building - Checks and balances [Investment Idiocy]Driverless cars are, apparently, very close to commercial reality. I don't know about you but there is something pretty scary about a computer being completely in control of a complex process, which could have catastrophic consequences if it went wrong. Ah it was nothing. You should have seen(...) How Can a Strategy Everyone Knows About Still Work? [AQR]Some assert that once a strategy is “discovered” it can’t work anymore. Others, often implicitly, assume the future will look as wonderful as the past. Perhaps not surprisingly, we stake out a middle ground. We’re going to argue that certain well-known classic strategies that have worked(...) Gray et al., DIY Financial Advisor [Reading the Markets]Models beat experts—or, stated more cautiously, models typically beat experts. This is the rallying cry of DIY Financial Advisor: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth (Wiley, 2015) by Wesley R. Gray, Jack R. Vogel, and David P. Foulke, all managing members of Alpha Architect. Whether(...) Stock Returns Around Labor Day [CXO Advisory]Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer vacations, signal any unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from the turn of the month. To investigate the possibility of short-term(...) Utilizing the Money Sucking $UVXY to Improve Risk-Adjusted Returns [EconomPic]Horrific Performance An initial investment of more than $450,000 to the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (UVXY) at the open of its October 4th, 2011 inception date (the split adjusted opening price) would be worth just $87 at today's close (this after a more than 28% gain today and(...) Do past returns predict future returns? New research paper explores momentum, short-term reversals [Gerstein Fisher]According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, stock prices reflect all available information, and past stock price movements should have no bearing on future average returns. Yet academic research has found evidence of certain quantifiable factors that can be predictive of future returns.(...) New Book Relased: DIY Financial Advisor @ $14.99 [Alpha Architect]We are happy to announce that our second book, DIY Financial Advisor, is finally available. For a limited time (and while supplies last) we are selling the book direct for $14.99! To get this deal you need to buy from the link below the main Amazon link. The first part of the book is dedicated to(...) Introduction To Monte Carlo Analysis Part 3 [Quants Portal]Financial Applications Within the Monte Carlo realm a vast number of applications exist. In this final part I bring together all the previous work as well as put into practice the theory we have gathered so far. Applying the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm From the previous section we deduced a way in(...) The New 1% Regime [Flirting with Models]Summary In 2015, we’ve seen 40 “1%” days – days where the market was up or down at least 1% – in the S&P 500 Since 1958, the S&P 500 has experienced, on average, 54 1% days Being currently below average does not imply we should expect to see more volatility in the fall We’ve(...) Ivy Portfolio September Update [Scott's Investments]The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet track the 10 month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber’s book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term(...) A Look At The S&P 500 Death Cross [Quantifiable Edges]Notable on Friday was that the 50-day moving average of the SPX closed below its 200-day moving average. This is often referred to as a “Death Cross”. (When the 50ma is above the 200ma that is a “Golden Cross”.) This is the first Death Cross since early 2012. Let’s take a brief look at(...) Daily Academic Alpha: Fed Forecasts-Folly or Fact? [Alpha Architect]Macroeconomic forecasting is incredibly difficult. The results from this paper suggest that the brainpower of the Fed’s 100 person economics team can predict 3 to 6 months out with a reasonable degree of success, but beyond that time horizon (e.g., 1-year), basic forecasting models perform just as(...) Steady Vol & Skewerage Combination Critique [John Orford]Recently Big 'O' Sharpe scrubbed out my Steady Vol and Skewerage strategies. I've never been sentimental. Bullet to the head. Move on. But Wait! I forgot, that I once combined both strategies together, like so, weight.INDEX_SP500 = 1 / realisedVol - skewChange; and weighted on a(...) [Academic Paper] Supply and Demand of S&P 500 Put Options [@Quantivity]Supply and Demand of S&P 500 Put Options Large Down Mornings in SPY [Godel's Market]What has happened in the past when the SPY opens 3.5% or more down? I ran the numbers and have some code for doing it yourself. I found that there's typically a profitable day ahead, and even if not profitable, the day tends to have enough upside (Open to High) to be of great interest. Here is(...) Lazy IDE Update [John Orford]Bar some evolutionary improvements, the Lazy Backtest IDE is now about as efficient as it is possible to be. This enables me to introduce the latest feature - Big 'O' analytics. The IDE generates multiple backtesting results in the background by changing the starting dates of backtests.(...) Best Links of the Week [Quantocracy]The best quant mashup links for the week ending Saturday, 08/29 as voted by our readers: A New Harry Long Strategy, And Plans For Hypothesis-Driven Development [QuantStrat TradeR] Performance of Two Strategies in Momersion Regimes [Price Action Lab] Quant-Trader or Trader-Quant? [MKTSTK] Combining(...) [Academic Paper] Low-Beta Investment Strategies [@Quantivity]Low-Beta Investment Strategies [Academic Paper] Persistency of the Momentum Effect: The Role of Consistent Winners and Losers [@Quantivity]Persistency of the Momentum Effect: The Role of Consistent Winners and Losers [Academic Paper] Principal Component Analysis of High Frequency Data [@Quantivity]Principal Component Analysis of High Frequency Data [Academic Paper] Large-Dimensional Factor Modeling Based on High-Frequency Observations [@Quantivity]Large-Dimensional Factor Modeling Based on High-Frequency Observations Introduction to Monte Carlo Analysis Part 2 [Quants Portal]Markov Chains, Central Limit Theorem and the Metropolis-Hastings In the previous article I gave a generic overview of Monte Carlo as well as introduced importance sampling. We now dive deeper by giving strict definitions of some of the widely used and yet misunderstood or rather commonly neglected(...) Multivariate volatility forecasting [Eran Raviv]Last time we showed how to estimate a CCC and DCC volatility model. Here I describe an advancement labored by Engle and Kelly (2012) bearing the name: Dynamic equicorrelation. The idea is nice and the paper is well written. Departing where the previous post ended, once we have (say) the DCC(...) Multiscale Noisy-Rational-Expectations Equilibrium [Alex Chinco]1. Motivation Evolutionarily Slow. In modern financial markets, people simultaneously trade the exact same assets on vastly different timescales. For example, a Jegadeesh and Titman (1993)-style momentum portfolio turns over half its holdings once every 6 months. By contrast, Kirilenko, Kyle,(...) Steady Vol & Big 'O' Sharpe [John Orford]Big 'O' Sharpe changes backtest starting dates day by day until the lowest Sharpe is found. When strategies rebalance on periodic basis it turns out that such very small changes cause very large differences in results. Big 'O' Sharpe is the pessimistic grumpy brother of the(...) Avoiding Stock Market Crashes with the Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 [iMarketSignals]This daily indicator is calculated as the ratio of the number of S&P500 stocks that have reached new 3-month-highs minus those that have reached new 3-month-lows, divided 500. Exiting and entering the stock market according the indicator’s signals would have avoided major drawdowns of the(...) Visualizing Stock Market Risk: 7/1926 to 6/2015 [Alpha Architect]How crazy is current market action? Not that crazy. …and if you lived through 2008, definitely not that crazy. Seeing a -3%+ or a +3% observation is roughly a 1/100 event, or ~ 2.5 times a year. Obviously, return events are not independent and volatility tends to cluster, but the numbers above(...) Are Spikes Predictive? [Factor Wave]Yesterday I looked at stock market returns in the week and month after a large daily decline and found that it is usually a good time to buy more equities. Especially because, as long-term investors, our strongly held prior is that equity markets appreciate over time. But what about spikes? Do large(...) Missing the Best and the Worst [Flirting with Models]Numerous marketing pieces circulating around the web show the detriment that trying to time the market can have on a portfolio. These pieces often look similar to this chart, which shows the cumulative growth of $1 invested in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) assuming that a given number of best days are(...) Why Thursday’s Volume Was Disappointing For Bulls [Quantifiable Edges]Thursday’s rally was accompanied by the lightest volume in 5 days. The relatively low volume could be worrisome for bulls. The importance of volume can be seen in the studies below. The first one looks at 2%+ SPX gains when volume comes in relatively high. 2015-08-28 image1 A week later ¾ of the(...) 5 Ways to Plot Returns [John Orford]There's an infinite number of ways to plot financial time series, let's look at the main ones. The most basic way is just plonking returns on a plot. This has one very nice feature. The returns are comparable across time, which makes a lot of sense, right? A return at the beginning of our(...) Introduction to Algorithmic Trading with Ernie Chan, Ph.D. [Adam H Grimes]I tweeted a few days ago that I had big news–huge news–gigantic news about the trading course, and I do. I have been very pleased with the reception the course has gotten, and I’ve heard from many traders that it has been a pivotal piece in their development. I decided that the time has come(...) A Gap -n- Go From A 50-Day Low [Quantifiable Edges]The study below is one that appeared in the Quantifinder yesterday afternoon. There were a few like it. This study looks at big gaps up from 50-day lows that go unfilled and close above the open. 2015-08-27 image1 The suggestion here is that the overwhelming 1-day bullishness (big gap and move(...) Extreme Moves as Market Predictors [Factor Wave]The last week has been interesting. Not always fun but at least always interesting. Extreme moves in the market are something of a double-edged sword when it comes to learning. First, extreme moves are "special". Obviously so in terms of frequency, but also in terms of the investor(...) Plotting Time Series in R using Yahoo Finance data [Revolutions]I recently rediscovered the Timely Portfolio post on R Financial Time Series Plotting. If you are not familiar with this gem, it is well-worth the time to stop and have a look at it now. Not only does it contain some useful examples of time series plots mixing different combinations of time series(...) Luck [John Orford]My grandfather was a gambler. Nice. Smart. But he thought he was smarter than everybody else in the room. I haven't gambled much, as a direct consequence of what happened decades before I was born. Going to the bookies is popular in Ireland but unheard of in our family. I started playing Poker(...) RUT Strangle - High Loss Threshold - 80 DTE [DTR Trading]This post reviews the backtest results of selling one-lot options strangles on the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), initiated at 80 days-to-expiration (DTE). The results in this post were derived from 2200 individual trades entered by the backtester. The results are grouped by the delta of the short(...) The Art of Backtesting [Cantab Capital]Backtesting is at the heart of systematic investment. Done correctly, and it can recreate reality closely enough to identify systematic patterns which are likely to persist in the future. Patterns discovered by a robust backtest can be exploited to generate returns. But there are many subtle(...) Academic Paper Analyses - Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Effect on Stocks [Quantpedia]Authors: Nilsson Title: The Pre-FOMC Drift Explored Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2640477 Abstract: The pre-FOMC drift was first published in 2011 and is a strong driver of equity market performance over the last 30 years. The effect is able to explain approximately half(...)