Risk-neutral probability distributions (RND) are used to compute the fair value of an asset as a discounted conditional expectation of its future payoff. In 1978, Breeden and Litzenberger presented a method to derive this distribution for an underlying asset from observable option prices [1]. The

In this tutorial I explain how to adapt the traditional k-fold CV to financial applications with purging, embargoing, and combinatorial backtest paths.

In this tutorial we utilize the free Alpha Vantage API to pull price data and build a basic momentum strategy that is rebalanced weekly. This approach can be adapted for any feature you’d like to explore. Let me know what you’d like to see in the next video!

Part 1 – Theoretical Background The Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) was originally developed for its application in fluid dynamics where it could decompose complex flows into simpler low-rank spatio-temporal features. The power of this method lies in the fact that it does not depend on any

Welcome! If you enjoy these posts, please follow this blog via email and check out my Twitter feed located on the sidebar. All of my previous analysis has focused on US equities, but today we begin the journey into another asset class, futures. Futures are traded via contracts where two parties

The differences between correlation and cointegration can often be confusing. While there are some helpful explanations online, I wasn’t satisfied with the visual examples. When looking at a plot of an actual pair of symbols where the correlation and cointegration test results differ, it can be

Hello all, last week I wrote a guest post featured on Dr. Ernest Chan’s blog which highlighted some of my research while working with QTS Capital Management on social media sentiment analysis and its place in financial models. The focus of this research was on how to derive sentiment signals from

Welcome back! This week’s post will backtest a basic mean reverting strategy on a cointegrated ETF pair time series constructed using the methods described in part I. Since the EWA (Australia) – EWC (Canada) pair was found to be more naturally cointegrated, I decided to run the rolling linear

The next two blog posts will explore the basics of the statistical arbitrage strategies outlined in Ernest Chan’s book, Algorithmic Trading: Winning Strategies and Their Rationale. In the first post we will construct mean reverting time series data from cointegrated ETF pairs. The two pairs we