It goes without saying that 2022 has been a difficult year across markets. Investors have had to contend with an inflationary bear market for which the traditional playbook has proven woefully inadequate. NASDAQ and high yield debt, the darlings of yesteryear, have fallen from grace with few

If 2022 has taught us anything, it is that our understanding of the inflationary process is woefully incomplete. Increasingly, it seems that the easy money era of the 2010’s created a blind spot in the market: stable inflation and ample liquidity were taken for granted. The risk of high (indeed,

Inflation is perhaps the least well understood phenomenon in economics. Once said to be exclusively a monetary phenomenon, our current predicament is significantly more complicated and there is little consensus as to the root cause. Until recently the concern was that inflation would run permanently

Due diligence for hedge funds presents a unique set of challenges for analysts and asset allocators. Funds often have significant discretion to invest across multiple asset classes and instruments. Funds may also deploy strategies of varying complexity ranging from well-known approaches such as

While the holiday season has long been regarded as a time of excess, folks this year are bracing for another challenge besides annual waistline expansion: price inflation. As we gather with family and friends for the holidays in coming weeks many are predicting that this year’s turkey will be the

In 2006, Meb Faber wrote a highly influential paper on tactical asset allocation and market timing. The strategy was particularly attractive in part because of its simplicity: Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA Sell and move to cash when monthly price By applying this simple, mechanical

It’s no secret that 2021 has started off well for Bitcoin. Having breached a new all time high of $61,788.45 on March 13th it seems that each passing month brings with it a new milestone, new players, and greater acceptance. Recently, significant news has focused on the pace of institutional

Building on the work of Robert Shiller, in recent posts I investigated the use of the CAPE ratio to predict future stock market performance and examine for the structural change in market valuation over time. This work revealed that stock market returns depend significantly on valuation and are

In “Stock Market Valuation and the 2020’s in R” I investigated whether the CAPE ratio could forecast the future trajectory of earnings and/or stock returns over the period 1980-2019. From this study, we made a couple of observations: The CAPE ratio cannot be used to forecast future earnings

I’ve been thinking about valuations a lot lately. If you’ve been following the stock market in recent months, then you will doubtlessly be aware that the past 6-months have witnessed a historic 44% rally across global markets. This rally has drawn particular attention because it has been