Guest: Corey Hoffstein. Corey is the founder and CIO of Newfound Research. He’s a frequent speaker on industry panels and contributes to ETF.com, ETF Trends, and Forbes.com’s Great Speculations blog. He was named a 2014 ETF All Star by ETF.com. Corey holds a Master of Science in Computational

Traders often debate whether short out-of-the-money (OTM) or at-the-money (ATM) puts are riskier. The argument for OTM put options being riskier is that their Speeds (or dGamma/dspot) are higher than the ATMs’ ones, thus the Gamma, which is negative, can increase (in absolute value) substantially

In this post, I want to explain the intuition behind some famous theorems in mathematical finance. I will not explain any proofs, since you can find these in books, but rather for what the theorems can be used. Girsanov’s theorem Let us start with Girsanov’s theorem. We need a Brownian motion Wt

A common question asked in the factor investing field is the following — “how much of the model’s performance is driven by sector allocations, and how much is driven by security selection?” Our answer is to simply buy Value stocks or Momentum stocks, regardless of sector constraints. Why?

In this new article series Imanol Pérez, a PhD researcher in Mathematics at Oxford University, and an expert guest contributor to QuantStart delves into high-frequency trading and introduces the concept of market microstructure. Nowadays, a significant number of financial instruments are traded in

I propose a theoretical explanation for the puzzling pre-announcement positive drift that has been empirically documented before scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. I construct a general equilibrium model of disagreement (difference-of-opinion) where two groups of agents react

In a previous blog post I mentioned the VVIX/VIX Ratio, which is measured as the ratio of the CBOE VVIX Index to the VIX Index. The former measures the volatility of the VIX, or the volatility of volatility. A follow-up article in ZeroHedge shortly afterwards pointed out that the VVIX/VIX ratio had

What are the research questions? By studying the trading data (provided by a German brokerage house) of a large (6,949) group of individual self-directed investors over the period from 2005-2010, the authors attempt at answering:(1) Do ETFs provide performance benefits to individual investor

Under a simple model of asset prices, expected returns and volatilities can be used to calculate expected maximum drawdowns over a given timeframe. However, these expected drawdowns do not line up with the drawdowns investors have experienced. Simple models have underestimated drawdown risk in

SUMMARY Investors seek smart beta products for risk reduction However, smart beta products are effectively long-only products with full equity risk Only factor products, i.e. long-short portfolios, offer true diversification benefits and downside protection INTRODUCTION FTSE Russell’s 2017 Smart

In this piece, I’m going to share a mental exercise that we can use to increase the truthfulness of our thinking. The exercise is intended primarily for traders and investors, given their obvious (financial) reasons for wanting to think more truthfully about the world, but it has the potential to

We consider an investor and a financial market that consists of only two assets: one risky asset and one safe (or risk-fee) asset. An example of a risky asset is an investable stock market index. When it comes to the safe asset, even though financial theory assumes its existence, there are no

Do stock scammers use Twitter to manipulate prices of microcap stocks? In his August 2017 paper entitled “Market Manipulation and Suspicious Stock Recommendations on Social Media”, Thomas Renault performs an event study to analyze returns for microcap stocks around spikes in Twitter activity

This paper uses S&P100 data to examine the performance of pairs trading portfolios that are sorted by the significance level of cointegration between their constituents. We find that portfolios that are formed with highly cointegrated pairs, named as "supercointegrated", yield the best

Recent graduates, postgraduates and those in early-career positions with a technical background are now faced with a wide choice of exciting and well-compensated career paths in a diverse set of industries. Quantitative finance remains an attractive option but the competition for top talent is

SUMMARY Smart beta ETFs are based on factor investing research Excess returns from smart beta ETFs are different from factor returns Investors need to be aware that smart beta ETFs offer little diversification for an equity-centric portfolio INTRODUCTION Blackrock, a provider of active and passive

In order to analyze and build ‘crypto’ based trading strategies we need to get historical data for Bitcoin and other ‘large-cap’ coins such as Ether, Ripple, Dash, Monero, etc. But also for up and coming coins such as Neo, Stratis, IOTA and many more. In this post I will point you to two

What are the research questions? Can the concepts contained in equity “factors” translate to the corporate bond market? Do single factor bond portfolios generate alpha? Do multifactor bond portfolios contribute additional value? What are the Academic Insights? YES. Using bond characteristics

While valuation-based market timing is notoriously difficult, present and future retirees should prepare for muted U.S. stock and bond returns relative to historical experience. High valuations suggest that retirement withdrawal rates that were once safe may now deliver success rates that are no

... is now ready for pre-order. For more information see the website, here: https://www.systematicmoney.org/smart To pre-order you can go here: https://www.harriman-house.com/smart-portfolios

Years ago, when was asked to recommend investment books, I often suggested some about the psychological issues influencing investor behavior. They focused on investor fear and greed to show “what fools these mortals be.” Here are some examples: Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial

A trend following strategy is based on switching between a financial asset and cash depending on whether the asset prices trend upward or downward. Specifically, when the strategy identifies that prices trend upward (downward), it generates a Buy (Sell) trading signal. A Buy signal is a signal to

Using a newly constructed unique dataset, this study is the first to document returns of the market portfolio for a long period and with a high level of detail. Our market portfolio basically contains all assets in which financial investors have invested. We analyze nominal, real, and excess return

Similar to some better-known factors like size and value, time-series momentum is a factor that historically has demonstrated above average excess returns. Time-series momentum, also called trend-momentum or absolute momentum, is measured by a portfolio long assets that have had recent positive

In this article series QuantStart returns to the discussion of pricing derivative securities, a topic which was covered a few years ago on the site through an introduction to stochastic calculus. Imanol Pérez, a PhD researcher in Mathematics at Oxford University, and an expert guest contributor to

‘Once you have a system, the biggest obstacle is trusting it.’ Tom Wills ‘What is the last thing you do before you climb on a ladder? You shake it. And that is Monte Carlo simulation.’ Sam Savage, Stanford University Introduction In my early days of looking at trading strategies, getting to

Andrew Lo is a professor of finance and the director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. His research spans a wide range of topics, including the empirical validation and implementation of financial asset pricing models; the pricing of options and other

The folks at AQR are top-notch researchers and have written a ton of great papers. Some of their more famous papers are the following: Value and Momentum Everywhere A Century of Evidence on Trend Following Size Matters If you Control Your Junk (my favorite title of any paper ever published) In this

AQR updates it paper on Trend Following performance over the last century. Despite the strategy experiencing poor recent performance, it brings tremendous value to stock and bond portfolios over time by 1) increasing returns and 2) lowering volatility and max loss. A win-win-win in my book. Trend

Compared to the equity market, the options market is a level up in complexity. For each symbol there are multiple expiration dates, strike prices for each expiration date, implied volatilities, and that's before we get to the option greeks. The increased complexity presents us with more

Tail risk conventionally refers to the risk of a large and sharp draw down of the portfolio. How large is subjective and depends on how you define what is a tail. A lot of research is directed towards having a good estimate of the tail risk. Some fairly new research also now indicates that investors

In spite of several efforts by researchers to overcome the estimation-risk problem (the use of estimate inputs based on sample information as if they were representative of the true population) which produces the so-called “wacky weights”, DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal (2009) present striking

Two questions we frequently receive are: “what is global tactical asset allocation?” and “what are style premia (factors)?” In this commentary, we aim to provide a very high-level answer to those questions, incorporating as little math or financial theory as possible and avoiding nuanced

In this article we'll look more deeply at the following iron condor (IC) strategy variations: 38 DTE, 25 pt. wings, 20 delta shorts, 100% stop loss, 50% profit taking 80 DTE, 25 pt. wings, 20 delta shorts, 100% stop loss, 50% profit taking 80 DTE, 75 pt. wings, 12 delta shorts, 200% stop loss,

In his 2012 book, Nicholas Nassim Taleb defined the term antifragile for representing things that benefit from disorder. When this concept is applied to trading, an obvious example can be seen in the relative outperformance of systematic trend following strategies during market crises. In the CTA

In our context, a technical trading indicator can be considered as a combination of a specific technical trading rule with a particular moving average of prices. In two preceding blog posts we showed that there are many technical trading rules, as well as there are many popular types of moving

GMO's latest quarterly commentary is a must read, especially the second half where Jeremy Grantham attempts to model / answer the question "Why Are Stock Market Prices So High?". His first bullet point in the whole piece provides a good summary: Contrary to theory, the market P/E

uly 2017 Trend Following: UP +1.59% / YTD: -15.56% The second half of 2017 starts with a modest gain for our trend following index, while the YTD performance is still well in the red. Below is the full State of Trend Following report as of last month. Performance is hypothetical. Chart for July:

Guest: David Varadi. David is the Co-Founder and Portfolio Manager of QuantX Funds and has been the Director of Research at Blue Sky Asset Management since 2014. Previously, David was the Vice President of Economic Research and Strategic Development for Flexible Plan Investments overseeing

A user commented on ETF Sector Rotation post about a simple idea for trading the sector ETFs, which I can’t believe I have never tried. I like keeping things simple just like my Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game. Rules If the Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY, XLP, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK, XLU) is above its

This is a summary of the recent performance of a wide range of excellent tactical asset allocation strategies. These strategies are sourced from books, academic papers, and other publications. While we don’t (yet) include every published TAA model, these strategies are broadly representative of

This post is a token of appreciation for Faisal Habib who taught us structured products this summer. As commonly known among people who are familiar with leveraged ETFs, the tracking error of those products tend to be larger than what we intuitively expected. This phenomenon has been explored and

The article provides new empirical evidence on the state of market efficiencies in ETFs by studying the following questions: What is the magnitude of the ETF premiums across all US-listed ETFs and all underlying asset class and over time? In particular, what is the magnitude of “true” ETF

So far in this series, we’ve covered faulty benchmark construction, the wide array of fundamental drivers, and the critical importance of quality in cutting through the noise among micro cap stocks. Now, we turn to the largest factor spreads I’ve come across in any segment of the market, real

In keeping with our recent theme of providing useful tidbits of algo trading practicalities, here’s an elegant solution that resolves Yahoo’s unceremonious exit from the free financial data space. Regular readers would know that I use various tools in my algo trading stack, but the one I keep

This is a test of the “Vigilant Asset Allocation” (VAA) strategy from the recently published paper: Breadth Momentum and Vigilant Asset Allocation, by Dr. Wouter Keller and JW Keuning. This is an aggressive momentum trading model, similar in spirit to Keller and Keuning’s popular Protective

Simple rules on macro assets can create very attractive returns. We present a simple trend system and a simple carry system and show how the combination of the two return streams appears very attractive. Summary Trend following in one form or another has been an investment style for decades.

In this new article series QuantStart returns to the discussion of pricing derivative securities, a topic which was covered a few years ago on the site through an introduction to stochastic calculus. Imanol Pérez, a PhD researcher in Mathematics at Oxford University, and an expert guest contributor

The financialization of crude oil markets over the last decade has changed the behavior of oil prices in fundamental ways. In this paper, we uncover the gradual transformation of crude oil from a physical to a financial asset. Although economic demand and supply factors continue to play an important

Designing and managing asset allocation strategies based on factors is promoted in some corners as a better way to build portfolios. Not surprisingly, there’s no shortage of studies that support this view. But the jury’s still out on whether it’s prudent to throw out the standard asset-class