This is a follow-up from my FB post last night. Traders that looked to take advantage of a possible bounce from today’s open have seen moderate gains so far today. So what are the chances FB continues to bounce over the next several days and weeks? I re-looked at the study from last night, and

The chart below is from this weekend’s QE subscriber letter. It is one I have updated frequently the last few months. It looks at compound performance of two opposing strategies. The blue line represents a strategy that is invested in the market during weeks that the Fed’s SOMA account value

The rally on Friday was accompanied by a sizable drop in the VIX (and even more so for the VXO, which is the old calculation for the VIX). This triggered some old studies for me in which I noted that big drops in the VXO have had much different connotations depending on whether SPX is in a long-term

As many readers of this blog are aware, on this weekend I will be doing a 150 mile bike ride from Boston, MA around Cape Cod to its tip in Provincetown for the Multiple Sclerosis Society. I have offered anyone that donates any amount of money a copy of the QE Fed Day MS Ride package, which includes

On Wednesday the bulls tried to make a move higher and failed, making for a higher high and a lower close. On Thursday the opposite happened. The bears failed in their attempt at a move lower. A study from the Quantifinder looked at 2-day moves like this. I found results to be substantially

I noted a few years ago here on the blog that the week after June options expiration has done especially poorly in recent years. The table below is updated and shows all such weeks dating back to 1999. 2018-06-18 Those are some pretty weak numbers. Below is a 5-day profit curve. 2018-06-18-2 As you

Last year Quantifiable Edges readers helped me raise over $4000 for Multiple Sclerosis (MS), and this year I am upping the incentive for people to donate! I am happy for any size donation, but I have created 2 donation levels this year so that people are incented to give more: Thank You Level: One

One interesting study that I discussed in last night’s subscriber letter considered the fact that SPY left an unfilled upside gap for the 2nd day in a row while closing at a 50-day high. The results table I shared can be found below. 2018-06-05 The size of the follow-through isn’t terribly

Happy Memorial Day! The week of Memorial Day has shown some interesting seasonal tendencies over the years. But it has faltered greatly the last few. The chart below is one I have shown in the past, and have now updated. It examines SPX performance from the Friday before Memorial Day to the Friday

The new high in the Russell is notable, since it is the 1st major index to get there. But it does not necessarily mean the other indices will follow. In the study below I looked at SPX performance following instances of a fresh RUT breakout while SPX had still not broken out. 2018-05-17 Whether you

The Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA is the account at the Fed that contains all of its bond purchase holdings. Fed SOMA data going back to 2003 can be downloaded from the New York Fed’s website. Over this time, there has been a strong relationship between the changes in the SOMA and

I have shown Fed-based studies here at Quantifiable Edges since inception in 2008. And since 2010 I have closely tracked SOMA movement and its influence on the market in the Quantifiable Edges subscriber letter. This has proven extremely valuable in my research and trading. Now, after years of

Friday the employment report will be released about an hour before the NYSE open. Employment days have an interesting history and they have contributed to some worthwhile studies over the years. Below is a chart of SPX performance on Employment Days going back to 1993. 2018-05-04 What I find

As we head towards the summer, the stock market has two long-term cycles converging that suggest it could be a rough ride. The 2 cycles are the “Best 6 Months” and the “Presidential Cycle”. I cover both of these cycles in detail in the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course. Here I will

SPY’s move lower over the last 3 days has set up a potential “Turnaround Tuesday” scenario. The fact that it made a lower high, lower low, and lower close for at least the 3rd day in a row triggered the following study. 2018-04-241 The numbers are impressive and the bounces couldn’t get much

Friday’s action caused SPY to close in an interesting position. Traders could look at the chart and say it is “short-term oversold” due to the fact that it closed at a 5-day low for the 1st time in a while. They might also say it is “short-term overbought” since it closed above its 10-day

Last month I shared a table that showed performance of opex weeks by month. April was one of the most bullish. The study below looks specifically at April opex week. I last showed it on the blog in 2016. Results are all updated. 2018-04-15 The numbers are impressive, and suggest a bullish edge.

Friday the 13th is upon us. Known for bad luck and horror movies, I decided to go back and see how SPX has performed on this day. What I found was scary… 2018-04-13 Good luck trading today!

Stock market performance leading up to and around many holidays has often been bullish. This is something I have written about several times over the years. Holy Thursday is one such day that has done quite well. I have shown Holy Thursday stats a few times in the past. The chart and statistics

As far as Fed Days go, Wednesday was a disappointment. Not only did it fail to rally, but it also left SPX and NDX at 10-day lows. With Fed Days typically bullish, finishing at a 10-day low is quite unusual. The results table below is part of a larger examination I did in last night’s Subscriber

The Fed holds policy meetings 8 times per year. Many times since starting Quantifiable Edges in 2008, I have discussed the (primarily bullish) edge that exists on the final day of these meetings when the Fed releases its statement and announces any new policy changes. One question I often get about

I discussed last weekend that monthly option expiration (opex) week is typically a bullish week, especially during the months of March, April, October, and December. Obviously, the bullish tendency did not play out this past week. So does this mean the bullish tendency may be delayed a week? Or is

The employment report has helped to spark a big rally today, and the NASDAQ is hitting new all-time highs. I looked back at other instances where the NASDAQ spiked higher and closed at a new high on the day of an employment report. The results I saw were compelling. Here are the list of instances

Last night I looked at 3-day pullbacks a number of ways in relation to current market conditions. I thought blog readers might find the following interesting. I noted that SPX closed lower by greater than 1% for the 3rd day in a row on Thursday. In the past, that has often been followed by gains the

SPY gapped up and closed lower Tuesday after leaving an unfilled up gap on Monday. This triggered a simple study that I have examined a number of times over the years in the subscriber letter. The study can be found below. 2018-02-28 The numbers here all look solidly bullish, suggesting a potential

I mentioned in a Tweet on Friday that the low volume on Friday’s rally was a bit concerning. The study below is one I featured in the subscriber letter this weekend. It examined other times substantial rallies occurred during uptrends on very light volume. 2018-02-25 Stats here suggest a downside

Sunday Feb 18th marks the 10th anniversary of the Quantifiable Edges Subscriber Letter. I can hardly believe I have been writing it for 10 years, but it is true. A few highlights and anecdotes from the last 10 years… · When the letter began, there was not even a website – just a blogspot blog

One notable bit of evidence that emerged on Wednesday was the fact that it qualified as an IBD Follow Through Day (FTD). I have done a lot of research on FTDs over the years. Much of that research can be found on the blog. Here is a link. 2018-02-15 The failure rate here is substantial no matter how

The sizable gap up, pullback, and then move back higher on Friday triggered an old Quantifinder study for the 1st time in a long time. Below is the full list of trades with a 5-day holding period. 2018-02-11 All 8 instances saw run-ups of at least 1%, and they all closed positive. While instances

I have discussed some lately that the market is acting outside of historical norms. Thursday’s action reinforced that. The pullback has come so fast and been so extreme that it is going beyond even many of the most extreme moves in similar situations. For instance, I looked back to 1960 with the

A couple of weeks ago I did a little study that looked at performance following the induction of a new Fed Chairman. With Jerome Powell starting his new job on Monday, I decided to expand on that study below. 2018-02-04 Obviously it appears to be a bit of a mixed bag. The most positive results came

XIV is an inverse-VIX ETN. In other words, it was designed to generally trade inversely to VIX futures on a daily basis. Since VIX and SPX typically trade opposite each other, you would think that XIV and SPX would often close in the same direction. And you would be right. Of course, XIV depends on

The start to 2018 has been fairly remarkable. The SPX has only closed down 3 days so far, while closing up 11 days. That is a substantial hot streak, and one might think that such a strong run to start the year would almost certainly have to pullback soon. So I checked. 2018-01-23 The imminent

Jerome Powell is expected to take over for Janet Yellen as the new Fed chairman on Feb 3rd. A few days ago in the letter I looked at SPX performance after a new chairman takes over. I used the SPX and looked back to 1970. Tonight I decided to take the analysis back to 1923 using my Dow data. Like

Wednesday saw both SPX and VIX close at 40-day highs (about 2 months). Since they commonly trade opposite each other, to have them both be extended up like this is very rare. In fact, it has only happened 4 other times. Below is a list of those instances along with their 4-day results. 2018-01-18

Opex week in January is one that the market has seen some struggles over the last 19 years. Below is the list of January op-ex weeks from 1999 – 2017 with their full week performance results. There have been 8 years in which January op-ex week occurred in conjunction with Martin Luther King Day.

One compelling study from last night’s Quantifinder suggested the recent persistent upmove is unlikely to abruptly end. (This is a theme we have seen many times over the years.) It considers what happens after the market moves up at least 5 days in a row to a 50-day high, and then pulls back. I

The simple fact that the SPX posted a gain on the first 4 days of the year is a pretty rare occurrence, with 2018 only being the 9th instance since 1961. While instances have been low, the intermediate-term performance following such strong starts to the year has been impressive. And looking at most

Last night’s subscriber letter featured (an expanded version of) the following study, which looks at performance in the 1st couple of days following a positive 1st day of a new year. 2018-01-03 The stats and curve all suggest some immediate follow-through has been typical. There have now been 9

Yesterday I decided to examine performance of XIV during the last few days of the year. The thought was that we are now in a time period that is generally regarded as seasonally bullish. Additionally, volume and volatility are often light this week with many traders on vacation. So I thought with

During a time of year that is renowned for its low volatility and bullish seasonality, one might think XIV would have some strong historical returns. Well… 2017-12-25 …one would be wrong. Happy Holidays anyway!

Over several time horizons op-ex week in December has been the most bullish week of the year for the SPX. The positive seasonality actually has persisted for up to 3 weeks. I’ve shown the study below in the blog many times since 2008. It looks back to 1984, which was the first year that SPX

Before spending much Monday selling off, the SPX managed to make a new intraday all-time high. The new high followed by a poor and downward close triggered the study below, from the Quantifinder. Results are all updated. 2017-12-05 Results here seem to suggest an upside edge over the next 1-2 weeks.

SPY gapped up and closed lower Monday after leaving an unfilled up gap on Friday. This triggered the study below that examined similar price action in SPY with regards to how it gapped and finished

Option expiration week is often a pretty good week for the market. October is one of those months where it has been especially good over the years. This can be seen in the study below. 2017-10-16 I decided to exclude 2008 because action that week was such an incredible outlier that it greatly skewed

urn of the month will often trigger some seasonal studies. The study below looks at performance after times that SPY has closed a month at the highest closing price of the month. 2017-10-02 image1 The numbers across the board are fairly compelling. Trades may want to keep this in mind as we enter

From a seasonality standpoint, there isn’t a more reliable time of the year to have a selloff than this upcoming week. In the past I have referred to is as “The Weakest Week”. Since 1961 the week following the 3rd Friday in September has produced the most bearish results of any week. Below is

Way back in 2009 I showed a study that suggested Labor Day week performance has been somewhat dependent on whether the market has rallied over the 20 trading days leading up to it. I decided to take a new look at that study today. Below are updated results of post-Labor Day action when the previous

Wednesday is a Fed Day. Fed Days have historically shown an upside tendency. I have documented this tendency in great detail over the years, with the most complete documentation coming in The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days. Based on what the market did Tuesday, this does not seem to be the

One study from the Quantifinder that triggered last has some potential intermediate-term implications, and it is fairly interesting, so I figured I would share it. This study looked at the SPX closing price in relation to its 50-day Bollinger Bands, and the fact that we are now extended upwards. I