Quantocracy

Quant Blog Mashup

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Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/20/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Wednesday, 02/20/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Trend-Following: A Decade of Underperformance [Alpha Architect]

    Everyone in finance remembers 2008the Global Financial Crisis. Yes, I know, the final downward movement in the stock market was in early 2009. However, many remember 2008 as the year of the crisis. So now we are 10 years removed from the crisis. Why do I mention this? After the crisis, some began to question the logic/benefits of B&H investing. After all, a ~50% cut in the value of stocks
  • ETF Bond Rotation [Alvarez Quant Trading]

    In my last post I discussed SPY/TLT rotation strategies. Today, I will be using the same ideas from the post but on a basket of bond ETFs. The Basket The first difficult decision one must make is what ETFs will be in the basket. What we choose here, can have a big impact on the results. I wanted to focus primarily on the US bond market. One factor I considered is picking ETFs with long histories.
  • If you had to do a trend following strategy, what would it be and why? [Alpha Architect]

    The topic of this blog post was inspired by Wes Gray from Alpha Architect. In the text below I limit my attention to following the trends in stock markets. To follow the trend or not? Marry, and you will regret it; dont marry, you will also regret it; marry or dont marry, you will regret it either way wise men quote Trend following is not a magical system that makes money without any

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/19/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Tuesday, 02/19/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Build a BitCoin(tegration) Backtester [Patrick David]

    This tutorial is in 2 parts(you can run the backtester as a separate standalone module) : Learn the Statistical technique of Cointegration. Build a Bitcoin Backtesting engine using Python to analyze the performance of a Cointegration based trading strategy. Just want the code? click here. What are we building We are going to build a python based event-driven backtester that pulls 2 crypto
  • Glitch [Flirting with Models]

    Trend followings simple, systematic, and transparent approach does not make it any less frustrating to allocate to during periods of rapid market reversals. With most trend equity strategies exhibiting whipsaws in 2010, 2011, 2015-2016, and early 2018, it is tempting to ask, is this something we can fix? We argue that there are three historically-salient features that make trend following

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/18/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Monday, 02/18/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Quant Minds International – May, 2019 – Vienna, Austria (Use VIP Code FKN2595QCYMU to Save 10%)

    QuantMinds International heads to Vienna on 13-17 May! Now in its 26th year, QuantMinds International brings together 400+ global quant finance experts from banks, buy-side, academia and beyond, to cover every hot topic in quant finance over the course of 5 days. Quote VIP code FKN2595QCYMU for a 10% discount.
  • Exploiting Business Day Patterns in Forex Markets [Quant Rocket]

    Do businesses exchange currencies in predictable ways that forex traders can exploit? This post explores an intraday EUR.USD strategy based on the hypothesis that businesses cause currencies to depreciate during local business hours and appreciate during foreign business hours. Business patterns in foreign exchange Source paper: Breedon, Francis and Ranaldo, Angelo, Intraday Patterns in FX Returns
  • What is Worse: Data-Mining or Not Innovating? [Two Centuries Investments]

    In most decisions including investing, there are two ways to be wrong: Doing something that doesnt work (false positive, type 1 error) Not doing something that would have worked (false negative, type 2 error) Investors and quants in particular worry more about the type 1 error – accepting a fake result thinking it is real. However there is another type of error that lurks behind – the type 2
  • Factor Investing in Financials, Real Estate & MLPs [Factor Research]

    Beating benchmarks is challenging for fund managers, even in unique sectors Factor performance in financials, REITs, and MLPs is comparable to the cross-sector factor returns Classic factor investing strategies are likely more attractive than industry expertise INTRODUCTION Stating that active managers have a performance problem would be a slight understatement, especially if the benchmark is a

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/17/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Sunday, 02/17/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • New Aggregator for Academic Quant Research: Academic-Quant-News.com

    Academic Quant News is, at heart, an aggregator of academic research articles and journals related to quantitative finance. A question? A suggestion? Drop me an email! Interested in quantitative portfolio allocation? You can find on my GitHub account an open source JavaScript library with algorithms to solve portfolio allocation problems (Mean-Variance optimization, Risk Budgeting
  • Algorithmic strategies: managing the overfitting bias [SR SV]

    The business of algorithmic trading strategies creates incentives for model overfitting and backtest embellishment: researchers must pass Sharpe ratio thresholds for their strategies to be considered, while managers lack interest in realistic simulations of ideas. Overfitting leads to bad investment decisions and underestimated risk. Sound ethical principles are the best method for containing this

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/15/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Friday, 02/15/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Asset Allocation Roundup [Allocate Smartly]

    Six recent asset allocation articles (tactical or otherwise) that you might have missed: 1. Right Now Its KDAAsset Allocation (QuantStrat TradeR) Here Ilya shares a TAA strategy that combines elements of two popular strategies that we track: Keller & Keunings Defensive Asset Allocation and ReSolves Adaptive Asset Allocation. Expect to see a test of Ilyas KDA coming to our site

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/14/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Thursday, 02/14/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Stock Prediction with ML: Ensemble Modeling [Alpha Scientist]

    Markets are, in my view, mostly random. However, they're not completely random. Many small inefficiencies and patterns exist in markets which can be identified and used to gain slight edge on the market. These edges are rarely large enough to trade in isolation – transaction costs and overhead can easily exceed the expected profits offered. But when we are able to combine many such small
  • Is There a Size Effect in the Stock Market? [Alpha Architect]

    One of the oldest and most persuasive arguments in the stock market is that small stocks outperform large stocks.(1) Warren Buffett, speaking at the 2013 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, summarized the sentiment when discussing the disadvantages of managing a huge amount of capital: Theres no question size is an anchor to performance. The implication is that managing a huge asset base
  • MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (Part 2) [Oxford Capital]

    Developer: Gerald Appel. Source: Appel, G. (2005). Technical Analysis. NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Concept: Trend following trading strategy based on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) signal line. Research Goal: Performance verification of momentum signals. Specification: Table 1. Results: Figure 1-2. Trade Setup: Long Setup: MACD[i] > 0 and MACD[i] > Signal_Line[i]. Short
  • Top 10 Machine Learning Algorithms For Beginners [Quant Insti]

    Alan Turing, an English mathematician, computer scientist, logician, and cryptanalyst, surmised about machines that, It would be like a pupil who had learnt much from his master but had added much more by his own work. When this happens I feel that one is obliged to regard the machine as showing intelligence. To give you an example of the impact of machine learning, Man groups AHL

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/12/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Tuesday, 02/12/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Fractional Differencing Derivation Walkthrough (FD Part 2) [Kid Quant]

    Just a quick warning before I start, this post is going to be math heavy. Those who are not brave enough to traverse these waters, be forewarned! Let's get right to it: To recap, last time I talked about a few basic statistical concepts regarding time series. Stationarity, Memory and reconciling them both using an idea called fractional differencing. This post walks through how we do this

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/11/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Monday, 02/11/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Research Symposition – May 23rd, London – Big Data is the New Currency [Raven Pack]

    Cryptocurrencies have been a huge distraction when in fact we should be focusing on the currency of the future – Big Data Join Industry Leaders For almost a decade, RavenPack Symposiums have consistently provided data-driven finance professionals with riveting forward-looking content, new research and insights, and practical use cases from industry leaders and top scholars. This year's
  • Trend: Convexity & Premium [Flirting with Models]

    Trend following is unique among style premia in that it has historically exhibited a convex payoff profile with positive skew. While the historical premium is anomalous, the convexity makes sense when we use options to replicate trend following strategies. We explore reasons why frequent rebalancing in trend following strategies is necessary and decompose the return contributions from different
  • Smart Beta: Broken By Design? [Factor Research]

    SUMMARY Smart beta excess returns are different from factor returns The Low Volatility factor shows the highest discrepancy between theoretical and realized returns Investors might be better served by embracing long-short factor products REALITY DYSFUNCTION Steve Jobss reality distortion field warped Apple employees perception of what was technically possible. Though it led to many
  • Fed Days – How to profit from FOMC Meetings [We Love Algos]

    The US Federal Reserves monetary-policy decisions invariably are closely followed by market participants worldwide since they are of great importance to the development of the capital markets. David O Lucca and Emanuel Moench have examined which patterns occur in the stock market and what these could be attributed to (download The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift here). Their conclusions:
  • How Risky are the Value and Size Premiums? Part 2/2 of Volatility Lessons [Alpha Architect]

    What are the research questions? The main purpose of this study was to examine the changes in the distribution of the US equity risk premium as the return horizon varies over the short term, medium and long term (see here for a piece that covers those topics). In this recap, we look at ancillary analysis from the Volatility Lessons paper, with a specific focus on the risk premiums associated

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/10/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Sunday, 02/10/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Welcome and Introduction to Fractional Differencing (FD Part 1) [Kid Quant]

    So somehow you've wandered into this hazy corner of the internet and found my blog. Not sure how…or why you're exactly here but I hope you'll stay. Let me introduce myself, I'm just your run of the mill budding algorithmic trader. I studied Mathematical Economics and Computer Science at the University of Richmond and was looking for an outlet to apply these tools to finance.
  • Most popular machine learning R packages [Eran Raviv]

    In a previous post: Most popular machine learning R packages, trying to hash out what are the most frequently used machine learning packages, I simply chose few names from my own memory. However, there is a CRAN task views web page which aims to provide some guidance which packages on CRAN are relevant for tasks related to a certain topic. So instead of relying on my own experience, in this

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/09/2019

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Saturday, 02/09/2019. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Towards Better Keras Modeling [Alpha Scientist]

    The field of deep learning is frequently described as a mix of art and science. One of the most "art-sy" parts of the field, in my experience, is the subject of network topology design – i.e., choosing the right geometry, size, depth, and type of the network. Machine learning practitioners develop rules of thumb and instincts for reasonable starting points, and heuristics exist for how
  • Portfolio construction through handcrafting: Empirical tests [Investment Idiocy]

    This post is all about handcrafting; a method for doing portfolio construction which human beings can do without computing power, or at least with a spreadsheet. The method aims to achieve the following goals: Humans can trust it: intuitive and transparent method which produces robust weights Can be easily implemented by a human in a spreadsheet Can be back tested Grounded in solid theoretical
  • Understanding dollar cross-currency basis [SR SV]

    Covered interest parity is an arbitrage condition that equalizes costs of direct USD funding and of synthetic USD funding through FX swaps. Deviations are called dollar cross-currency basis and have become a common occurrence since the great financial crisis. A negative dollar basis means direct funding in USD if accessible is cheaper than synthetic funding via swaps. An apparent