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Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/06/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Tuesday, 02/06/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Deep Learning for Trading Part 4: Fighting Overfitting with Dropout and Regularization [Robot Wealth]

    This is the fourth in a multi-part series in which we explore and compare various deep learning tools and techniques for market forecasting using Keras and TensorFlow. In Part 1, we introduced Keras and discussed some of the major obstacles to using deep learning techniques in trading systems, including a warning about attempting to extract meaningful signals from historical market data. If you
  • The End of 60/40? The Case for Diversified Value, Momentum, and Carry Risk Exposures [Alpha Architect]

    What are the research questions? Despite Peter Bernsteins suggestion in 2003 that adherence to a fixed and undiversified policy portfolio is dangerous, benchmarks ( the most used of which is the 60/40) are as popular today as they were 15 years ago. The authors study the following research question: Is a broad investment opportunity set ( an un-levered and long-only version of a value,
  • State of Trend Following in January [Au Tra Sy]

    The State of Trend Following index starts the year with a strong performance to bounce back from the 2017 lows. Please check below for more details. Detailed Results The figures for the month are: January return: 7.25% YTD return: 7.25% Below is the chart displaying individual system results throughout January:
  • What Does History Tell Us About The Stock Market s Dive? [Capital Spectator]

    The 4.1% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday looks ominous, all the more so since it follows last weeks hefty 3.8% decline. But focusing on what just happened distorts our capacity to maintain a healthy sense of historical perspective. As an antidote, lets step back and consider the latest market action through a longer-term lens. Despite Mr. Markets latest hissy fit, the current one-year
  • The Unconventional Guide To The Best Websites For Quants [Quant Insti]

    Technology moves at a startling speed and it has been the same case in the algorithmic and quantitative trading domain. Traders around the world are making use of Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Neural Networks, Deep Learning and similar techniques to execute their trades. One of the key factors to benefit from the ever-changing trend in technology is to learn the impact of
  • What’s In A Factor? Breakdown by Sectors [Factor Research]

    SUMMARY Some factors show structural sector exposure while others rotate sectors frequently Sector concentrations explain factor performance and may represent concentration risks Value is currently long Financials, Low Volatility is short Health Care, and Growth is short Energy INTRODUCTION Despite all the hustle and bustle surrounding factor investing, considerable uncertainty remains about what
  • January 2018 Trend Following UP [Wisdom Trading]

    January 2018 Trend Following: UP +6.94% / YTD: +6.94% Below is the full State of Trend Following report as of last month, opening the year with a strong performance in January. Performance is hypothetical. Chart for January: WSTF 201801 Index And the 12-month chart: WSTF 201801 Index 12months Below are the summary stats: Horizon Return Ann. Vol. Last month 6.94% 15.12% Year To Date 6.94% 15.12%

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/05/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Monday, 02/05/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Constructing Continuous Futures Price Series [Quantoisseur]

    Welcome! If you enjoy these posts, please follow this blog via email and check out my Twitter feed located on the sidebar. All of my previous analysis has focused on US equities, but today we begin the journey into another asset class, futures. Futures are traded via contracts where two parties agree to exchange a quantity of an asset for a price decided today and delivered at a specified date in
  • Three ETF-Based Ways to Leverage Your 60/40 Without Margin [Flirting with Models]

    We believe that capital efficiency should remain a paramount objective for investors. The prudent use of leverage can help investors employ more risk efficient portfolios without necessarily sacrificing potential returns. Many investors, however, do not have access to leverage (be it via borrowing or derivatives). They may, however, have access to leverage via the variety of ETFs and ETNs
  • Reviewing Last Week s Stock Market Decline In Historical Context [Capital Spectator]

    How bad was last weeks rout in US equities? The slide is the biggest weekly drop for the S&P 500 Index in over two years. But thats not saying much, given how calm the upside bias for the equity trend has been lately. Perhaps the bigger surprise is that weve gone so long without a meaningful setback. But dont be too quick to dismiss the latest fall from grace as insignificant. A
  • A Closer Look At Historical Performance Following New Fed Chairmen [Quantifiable Edges]

    A couple of weeks ago I did a little study that looked at performance following the induction of a new Fed Chairman. With Jerome Powell starting his new job on Monday, I decided to expand on that study below. 2018-02-04 Obviously it appears to be a bit of a mixed bag. The most positive results came in the 1st 3 weeks (15 trading days). Perhaps the market view the new chairman with enthusiasm. The
  • Factors ETFs and Futures [Factor Research]

    Investors can directly access factor returns via ETFs in the US & futures in Europe However, neither of these come without some investor concerns Realised returns differ substantially from theoretical returns INTRODUCTION Despite factor investing having gained immense popularity in recent years, it has been relatively difficult for most investors to directly access long-short factor returns as

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/03/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Saturday, 02/03/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • What to Expect from TAA When Markets Fall [Allocate Smartly]

    Markets have started the month weak. We got spoiled last year. After such an abnormally long period of market calm, its natural for investors to feel a little anxious. We have no opinion on where the markets go from here. Thats why were quantitative traders. We put a lot of time into understanding these models so that we have signposts to follow during periods of market turmoil. What we
  • Can Momentum Investing Be Saved? [Quantpedia]

    On paper, momentum is one of the most compelling factors: simulated portfolios based on momentum add remarkable value, in most time periods and in most asset classes, all over the world. So, our title may seem unduly provocative. However, live results for mutual funds that take on a momentum factor loading are surprisingly weak. No US-benchmarked mutual fund with momentum in its name has

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/02/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Friday, 02/02/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • FX Order Flow as a Predictor [EP Chan]

    Order flow is signed trade size, and it has long been known to be predictive of future price changes. (See Lyons, 2001, or Chan, 2017.) The problem, however, is that it is often quite difficult or expensive to obtain such data, whether historical or live. This is especially true for foreign exchange transactions which occur over-the-counter. Recognizing the profit potential of such data, most FX
  • Measuring Momentum s Duration For The US Stock Market [Capital Spectator]

    Momentum-based investing strategies may be one of the most reliable drivers of alpha, but like all sources of excess return this factor premium waxes and wanes through time. Accordingly, deciding when to exit the trade (or reduce exposure to it) is no less critical than determining when to jump on the gravy train. Research Affiliates recently advised that momentum can be divided into fresh and
  • Value and Momentum Factors in Fixed Income [Alpha Architect]

    Smart beta (or factor investing) seems to be the product du jour in ETFs. There are so many different factor products available that just about every fund company seems to offer themeven Vanguard is launching their own suite of factor-based stock funds. Note that nearly all of these products are focused on stocksnot bonds. Why the lack of factor love for fixed income instruments? Fixed

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 02/01/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Thursday, 02/01/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Tactical Asset Allocation in January [Allocate Smartly]

    This is a summary of the recent performance of a wide range of excellent tactical asset allocation strategies. These strategies are sourced from books, academic papers, and other publications. While we dont (yet) include every published TAA model, these strategies are broadly representative of the TAA space. Learn more about what we do or let AllocateSmartly help you follow these strategies in

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 01/31/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Wednesday, 01/31/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • The Behavioral and Performance Benefits of Trend Following [EconomPic]

    When we tell our investors to invest for the long run, we have to make sure the short run doesnt kill them first Investing for the long run isnt bad advice, its just unrealistic. It doesnt take into account human behavior. -Andrew Lo (HT: Andrew Thrasher) Trend following has historically provided strong long-term returns with materially reduced drawdowns relative to a traditional
  • Monetary Policy Rate Uncertainty Predicts Higher Equity Volatility [Alpha Architect]

    What are the research questions? Financial theory asserts a clear link between the risk-free interest rate and the pricing of equity securities, regardless of the time horizon. Therefore, the markets opinion about the uncertainty of rates should improve models forecasting equity volatility in the short and long run. This article asks one basic question: Do measures reflecting investor opinion

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 01/29/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Monday, 01/29/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Timing Bonds with Value, Momentum, and Carry [Flirting with Models]

    Bond timing has been difficult for the past 35 years as interest rates have declined, especially since bonds started the period with high coupons. With low current rates and higher durations, the stage may be set for systematic, factor-based bond investing. Strategies such as value, momentum, and carry have done well historically, especially on a risk-adjusted basis. Diversifying across these
  • Factor Allocation Models [Factor Research]

    Factor timing and factor risk management are related concepts, but have different objectives Factors have unique characteristics that require a tailored risk management approach A multi-dimensional factor risk management model shows consistent increases in risk-return ratios and decreases in maximum drawdowns across markets INTRODUCTION Smart beta funds surpassed $1 trillion assets under
  • Bitcoin exponential growth [Eran Raviv]

    Is bitcoin a bubble? I dont know. What defines a bubble? The price should drastically overestimate the underlying fundamentals. I simply dont know much about blockchain to have an opinion there. A related characteristic is a run-away price. Going up fast just because it is going up fast. How fast the price of bitcoin moves up? In order to quantify this we can design a short exercise testing

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 01/27/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Saturday, 01/27/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Dynamic WARIMAX-gjrGARCH Market Strategy [Alpha Macro]

    In this article, I am going to explore an alternative forecasting technique that currently has merits in the field of dam displacement, a structural engineering problem. I will then apply this technique and measure its forecasting capability on the S&P/TSX Composite Index (GSPTSE). The model is the Wavelet Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables and Generalized

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 01/26/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Friday, 01/26/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Bitcoin Return Based on Supply and Demand Model [CXO Advisory]

    Does the increase in number of Bitcoin wallets at a rate that far exceeds growth in number of Bitcoins explain the dramatic rise in Bitcoin price? In the December revision of his paper entitled Metcalfes Law as a Model for Bitcoins Value, Timothy Peterson models Bitcoin price according to Metcalfe Law, which posits that the value of a network (Bitcoin) is a function of the number of
  • SPX at Highs with XIV at Lows [Quantifiable Edges]

    XIV is an inverse-VIX ETN. In other words, it was designed to generally trade inversely to VIX futures on a daily basis. Since VIX and SPX typically trade opposite each other, you would think that XIV and SPX would often close in the same direction. And you would be right. Of course, XIV depends on more than just the movement in the VIX to determine its price. Among other things, it is influenced

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 01/24/2018

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Wednesday, 01/24/2018. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Which Implied Volatility Ratio Is Best? [QuantStrat TradeR]

    This post will be about comparing a volatility signal using three different variations of implied volatility indices to predict when to enter a short volatility position. In volatility trading, there are three separate implied volatility indices that have a somewhat long history for tradingthe VIX (everyone knows this one), the VXV (more recently changed to be called the VIX3M), which is like
  • Are There Any Simple Calendar Effects in Bitcoin Market? [Quantpedia]

    There is a large literature that reports time-specific anomalies in equity markets such as the Monday effect, the January effect and the Halloween effect. This study is the first to report intra-day time-of-day, day-of-week, and month-of-year effects for Bitcoin returns and trading volume. Using more than 15 million price and trading volume observations from seven global Bitcoin exchanges reveal
  • Equity Curve Monte Carlo Analysis [Alvarez Quant Trading]

    Imagine the following. You spent time developing a strategy with a compounded annual return of 24% and max drawdown of 18%. Profitable 10 of the last 11 years. An average 21 day rolling correlation with the SPY of .20. Passes your out-of-sample testing. Passes your parameter sensitivity testing. Raise your hand if you would trade this? I would be the guy jumping up and down saying yes!. Now
  • Machine Learning K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) Algorithm In Python [Quant Insti]

    Machine Learning is one of the most popular approaches in Artificial Intelligence. Over the past decade, Machine Learning has become one of the integral parts of our life. It is implemented in a task as simple as recognizing human handwriting or as complex as self-driving cars. It is also expected that in a couple of decades, the more mechanical repetitive task will be over. With the increasing
  • When distance is the issue [Quant Dare]

    Rankings are everywhere. They are sometimes useful and, at other times, contradicting. In such a case, we need to come up with a consensus ranking but how do we evaluate ranking consensus? The other day I was reading about something called rank aggregation, which is just a fancy name for combining preferences expressed through rankings. I bet you know that rankings are everywhere. The page