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Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 09/03/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Tuesday, 09/03/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Insights from the Geopolitical Sentiment Index made with Google Trends [Quantpedia]

    Throughout history, geopolitical stress and tension has been ever-present. From ancient civilizations to todays world, global dynamics have been largely shaped by wars, terrorism, and trade disputes. Financial markets, as always, have keenly observed and been significantly influenced as a result. Our article delves into understanding this relation between geopolitical stress and financial
  • Book Reviews and Reading List [Mark Best]

    How do you eat an elephant? I have wanted to write a reading list but I have been apprehensive since I didnt want to include too much and wanted also to explain why the books were in the list. If you want to trade crypto there is no point reading the Hull interest rate model book. This list likely will be a work in progress so keep that in mind. As I write this I realise I have a deep problem
  • Can smart rebalancing improve factor portfolios? [Alpha Achitect]

    This paper aims to test an effective rebalancing method that prioritizes trades with the strongest signals to capture more of the factor premium while reducing turnover and trading costs. The authors coin the term smart rebalancing to capture the essence of their ideas. The empirical tests include widely used factor strategies, including long-short factors and long-only factor-based

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 09/01/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Sunday, 09/01/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Coding live forward tests [Quantitativo]

    "Testing leads to failure, and failure leads to understanding. Burt Rutan. In the 1960s, NASA was racing to land a man on the moon, and the success of the Apollo 11 mission hinged on the performance of the Lunar Module (LM). The LM had to operate flawlessly in the harsh, unpredictable environment of the moona place where no human-made machine had ever landed. Before launching astronauts

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 08/29/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Thursday, 08/29/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Closing the loop [OSM]

    Summer has a way of getting away from you. That is as much relevant for blog writing as it is for life. Nonetheless, before summer ends we wanted to dust off our series on regime prediction and close the loop on the remaining techniques we had yet to investigate. That is, in our last post we initiated a relatively simple rolling method to retrain the model on more near term (and perhaps more

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 08/26/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Monday, 08/26/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Overnight Reversal Effects in the High-Yield Market [Quantpedia]

    High-yield bond ETFs represent a unique financial vehicle: they are highly liquid instruments that hold inherently illiquid securities, creating a fertile ground for predictable market behaviors. Our latest research uncovers an intriguing anomaly within these ETFs, similar to those observed in the stock market: overnight returns are systematically higher than intraday returns. This overnight
  • Long & Short Mean Reversion Machine Learning [Quantitativo]

    "There is no magic in magic; it's all in the details. Walt Disney. As most creative people are, I'm a huge fan of Walt Disney and his attention to detail. One of the most famous stories about his attention to detail involves a seemingly small problem with light bulbs on Main Street, U.S.A., in Disneyland. When Disneyland was being constructed, Walt Disney was deeply involved in
  • From Man vs. Machine to Man + Machine: The Art and AI of Stock Analyses [Alpha Architect]

    The research questions are as follows: How does AI perform compared to human analysts in predicting stock returns? Under what circumstances do human analysts retain their advantage over AI? What is the impact of combining human analysts with AI (the Man + Machine approach) on stock prediction accuracy? What are the implications of these findings for the broader application of AI in skilled

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 08/25/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Sunday, 08/25/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Lunch Effect in the U.S. Stock Market Indices [Quantpedia]

    In the complex world of financial markets, subtle patterns often reveal themselves through careful observation and analysis. Among these is the intriguing phenomenon we can call the Lunch Effect, a pattern observed in U.S. stock indexes where market performance tends to exhibit a distinct positive shift immediately after the lunch break, following a typically negative or flat performance
  • Battle of the Back-Testers [Algorithmic Advantage]

    Allow me to share a few thoughts that came up as we brought together two exceptional minds in the trading technology space to talk about their back-testing applications. In the blue corner representing Python – Jason Strimpel, an experienced quantitative risk manager, trader and technology leader, and in the red corner representing his own application (Real Test), Marsten Parker, a legendary
  • Bear Markets Through the Decades [Alvarez Quant Trading]

    Several months ago, Steven (my trading buddy) and I were talking about bear markets. I felt that bear markets seem shorter and shallower now compared to the past. I thought this would be a quick and easy research project and blog post. Nope. As I generated numbers, more questions and research paths would be generated. My questions are Are bear markets shorter? Are bear markets shallower? Data

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 08/20/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Tuesday, 08/20/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Optimal allocation to cryptocurrencies in diversified portfolios update [Artur Sepp]

    Cryptocurrencies have been acknowledged as an emerging asset class with a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes and independent drivers of their long-term performance (see for an example excellent papers by Harvey et al (2022) and Adams at al (2024)). A year ago in Summer of 2023, I published research article in Risk Magazine (SSRN draft) on quantitative methods for optimal
  • How to Replicate Trend Following Managed Futures [Invest Resolve]

    Trend-following managed futures strategies offer a compelling opportunity for investors to diversify their portfolios beyond traditional stocks and bonds. By capitalizing on persistent trends across a wide range of liquid futures markets from commodities to currencies to equity and bond indicesthese strategies have historically delivered attractive returns with low correlations to
  • Machine Learning and the Probability of Bouncing Back [Quantitativo]

    Learn the rules like a pro so you can break them like an artist. Pablo Picasso. Picasso painted Woman with a Book, one of his masterpieces, a few months before my grandmother was born. He was a legendary artist, a true master whose creativity and invention made him one of the most influential figures in modern art history. My grandmother has not achieved this level of notorietynot
  • Ehlers Precision Trend Analysis [Financial Hacker]

    In TASC 8/24, John Ehlers presented a new algorithm for separating the trend line from a price curve, using spectral analysis functions. Trend lines are only useful for trading when they have little lag, so that trend changes can immediately trigger trade signals. The usual suspects like SMA, WMA, EMA are too laggy for this. Lets see how good this new algorithm works. The functions below are a
  • Fixing the poor performance of the book-to-market ratio [Alpha Architect]

    While the research, commentary and speculation about the failure of value factor strategies over the last decade or two continues along a number of avenues, we havent yet seen a movement back towards fundamental analysis or a discounted cash flow (DCF) approach. In this paper, the authors argue for just such a solution. It is a good idea, and the analysis supports the supposition. Read on.

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 08/13/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Tuesday, 08/13/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Even Faster Logging in Rust! [Mark Best]

    I was re-reading some older posts, and I realised I owed some readers a follow up. Hopefully I will be forgiven that this took 2 years. This post will be short and the core of the ideas are a follow up to the original article here. The key takeaways from the original article are: IO and Logging should not be done on the strategy hot path. Formatting is expensive, and it is better to log variables
  • Tax management: does it benefit portfolio returns? [Alpha Architect]

    As a result of the trading required to capture the premiums that drive factor strategies investors may face significant tax liabilities. The challenge for the portfolio manager is to incorporate tax-efficient trading practices at each rebalance to mitigate tax impacts and ultimately avoid sacrificing excess returns. That is certainly a tall order, but it is achievable and surprisingly profitable.

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 08/04/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Sunday, 08/04/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Trading ETFs while fear and greed rise [Quantitativo]

    "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. Richard Feynman Richard Feynman was one of the great scientists and physicists of our time, truly one of the great minds of humanity. This is one of my favorite quotes from him. It emphasizes the importance of intellectual honesty and self-awareness in scientific inquiry and in life in general.

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 08/03/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Saturday, 08/03/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • The Value of WallStreetBets Investment Research Recommendations [Alpha Architect]

    Wallstreetbets has become an increasingly prominent source of investment research, particularly for risk-seeking retail investors. The excitement from the GameStop episode resulted in the forum growing from 500,000 users in July of 2018 to 10.7 million users by June 2021. Do their recommendations have value? A series of events has led to significantly increased interest in stock and options

Quantocracy’s Daily Wrap for 07/29/2024

This is a summary of links featured on Quantocracy on Monday, 07/29/2024. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Excess Earnings Yield Dynamic Valuation Strategy [Allocate Smartly]

    This is a test of the Excess Earnings Yield Dynamic valuation strategy based on the paper Man Doth Not Invest by Earnings Yield Alone by White and Haghani of Elm Wealth. The strategy dynamically splits the portfolio between stocks and TIPS based on excess earnings yield, which is the cyclically-adjusted earnings yield (1 / CAPE) minus the real yield on 10-year TIPS. We have tested two