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Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 12/15/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Monday, 12/15/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Challenging the “Lazy Man’s Momentum Strategy” [Allocate Smartly]

    This is a quick analysis of the Lazy Mans Momentum Strategy, a simple country rotation strategy. Every six months the strategy selects from 22 country indices, buying the 11 with the highest 6-month return (*). For reasons we discuss in a bit, we will not be adding this strategy to our platform. Backtested results from 1971 follow. Results are net of transaction costs see backtest
  • Is Trend Following Better than Buy the Dip ? [Alpha Architect]

    Buy the dip (BTD) has become one of the most popular investment mantras of recent years, especially since the COVID-19 market recovery in 2020. The strategy seems intuitive: when markets fall, buy at a discount and wait for the inevitable rebound. However, BTD is not foolproof. By design, it performs well when market declines are brief, but poorly when declines mark the beginning of a
  • Can We Blame Index Funds for More Volatile Financial Markets? [Quantpedia]

    Over the past seven decades, U.S. equity-market volatility has roughly doubledfrom about 10% to 20%and this increase is concentrated at the market level and at high frequencies (daily volatility up by ~130%, weekly by ~75%, monthly by ~40%). A new paper by Lars Lochstoer and Tyler Muir argues that this structural change is not driven by macroeconomic fundamentals or firm-level shocks but by
  • Risk, Leverage, and Optimal Betting in Financial Markets [Relative Value Arbitrage]

    Most research in portfolio management focuses on alpha generation; however, another critical component of portfolio construction is position sizing. In this post, we examine key considerations in position sizing, including the Kelly criterion and the martingale betting system. Does Kelly Portfolio Outperform the Market? A method for capital allocation and position sizing is to employ the Kelly

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 12/11/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Thursday, 12/11/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Covariance Matrix Forecasting: Average Oracle Method [Portfolio Optimizer]

    Continuing this series on covariance matrix forecasting (c.f. here and there for the previous posts), I will now describe a relatively recent1 data-driven, model-free, way to [forecast] covariance [and correlation] matrices of time-varying systems2 rooted in random matrix theory. This method – introduced in Bongiorno et al.2 and called Average Oracle – consists in replacing the eigenvalues of a
  • Statistical Factor Modeling [OS Quant]

    This article explores using data to uncover latent streams of returns, otherwise known as factors. We jump into the world of rotations to make sense of the factors and show how to ensure stability when used for real-world trading. Author Adrian Letchford Published 26 November 2025 Length 29 minutes When you buy something and the price changes, what happened? Lets say, for example, you buy
  • Murphy’s Law [Quantitativo]

    Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Major Edward A. Murphy Jr., aerospace engineer A few days ago in Abu Dhabi, I met an old friend I hadnt seen since our graduation. We were among the very few aerospace engineers trained in our home country that year. After a few years serving in the Air Force (I went straight into civilian life, he didnt), he eventually moved on: first

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 12/05/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Friday, 12/05/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Alternative Market Signals: Investing with the Box Manufacturing Index [Quantpedia]

    Investors are increasingly exploring alternative indicators to gain an edge in financial markets. Traditional signals, such as earnings reports or macroeconomic data, often come with delays or may already be priced in. As a result, unconventional metrics have attracted attention. For example, recent focus has been on construction inventory statistics, where large stockpiles have been interpreted
  • Opportunity-Set Bias in Mean-Reversion Trading Systems [Concretum Group]

    In the evaluation of new signals and trading strategies, a common practice is to initiate the research process by analyzing a full set of trade statistics. The rationale behind this approach is simple: strategies exhibiting attractive trade-level metrics are considered eligible for further due diligence, whereas those that do not can be quickly rejected. While this approach may appear reasonable
  • Rob Hanna – Trading the VIX in a Diversified Portfolio [Algorithmic Advantage]

    For members of the Algo Collective (https://www.algoadvantage.io/collective) Ill produce an even more detailed research report (its already 14 pages) on Robs strategies. Over time Ill generate more actionable code in there as well, as I know thats always in hot demand! See you on the inside! Oh, and the end of the interview is also published in the Collective! 1. Overview Rob Hanna

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 12/02/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Tuesday, 12/02/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Using the OECD Composite Leading Indicator + Momentum to Time the Market [Allocate Smartly]

    This is a test of Grzegorz Links Enhanced Global Growth Cycle (GGC) strategy. Like the original GGC, this enhanced version uses the OECD Composite Leading Indicator to determine risk exposure, but unlike the original, it also considers momentum to determine the specific risk on/off assets to hold. Backtested results from 1961 follow. Results are net of transaction costs see backtest
  • Using the OECD Composite Leading Indicator + Momentum to Time the Market [Allocate Smartly

    This is a test of Grzegorz Links Enhanced Global Growth Cycle (GGC) strategy. Like the original GGC, this enhanced version uses the OECD Composite Leading Indicator to determine risk exposure, but unlike the original, it also considers momentum to determine the specific risk on/off assets to hold. Backtested results from 1961 follow. Results are net of transaction costs see backtest
  • Academic Anti-Science [Anton Vorobets]

    This is a longer edition of the Portfolio Construction newsletter, presenting the many ways that I have witnessed anti-scientific tendencies in finance and economics academia. If you are fully aware of these, and just want to skip to the popular posts recap, this is available at the bottom of the post. The TL;DR version is that the current academic system seems to foster a nepotistic environment

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 12/01/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Monday, 12/01/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Switch-off: Robust changepoint protocol [Trading the Breaking]

    Introduction. The drift in algorithm performance. Taxonomy of performance drift. Model risks and limitations. Robust estimation and the biweight loss. M-estimators and the geometry of influence. Tukeys Biweight (bisquare) loss. Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (IRLS). Regime segmentation via penalized dynamic programming. The PELT Algorithm (Pruned Exact Linear Time). The pruning
  • New Site: Traders Are Watching the Wrong Metric: Why Rate Cuts Alone Don’t Move GBP/USD [FX Macro Data]

    Every Fed or BoE rate cut is accompanied by headlines predicting a market reaction. Traders refresh charts, expecting a sharp move in GBP/USD, but decades of data tell a different story. Analysis shows that, on the day of the announcement, the currency barely budges. In fact, most of the action happens before the policymakers even speak. 1. Fetching the Data To understand whether rate cuts are
  • EMNLP 2025 in Suzhou [Gautier Marti]

    This year at EMNLP 2025 in Suzhou, my colleague Khaled Al Nuaimi and I attended the conference so that Khaled could present his paper on Evasive Answers in Financial Q&A, and also to explore current R&D trends in empirical NLP. While walking through the poster sessions, we saw a dozen of papers closely related with our recent contributions and joint research program with Khalifa
  • The Effectiveness of Collar Structures in Equity and Commodity Markets [Relative Value Arbitrage]

    There are several popular options strategies frequently discussed in the trading and investing literature, as well as on social media. In a previous post, we examined the effectiveness of the covered call strategy, which has gained wide adoption among retail investors. In this edition, we extend our critical evaluation to another widely used approachthe options collar, a strategy employed by

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 11/30/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Sunday, 11/30/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Systematic Edges in Prediction Markets [Quantpedia]

    Prediction markets are financial platforms where participants trade contracts linked to future events, with prices reflecting collective probabilities. While these markets efficiently aggregate information, systematic inefficiencies create trading opportunities. Notable strategies include inter- and intra-market arbitrage, exploiting price differences across platforms or mispricing within a single
  • Deep Latent Variable Models [Gatambook]

    In our previous blog post, we introduced latent variable models, where the latent variable can be thought of as a feature vector that has been encoded efficiently. This encoding turns the feature vector X into a context vector z. Latent variable models sound very GenAI-zy, but they descend from models that quant traders have long been familiar with. No doubt you have heard of PCA or SVD (see
  • Systematic stock selection with macro factors [Macrosynergy]

    Macroeconomic conditions drive divergences in business profitability, making timely economic data a meaningful foundation for stock-selection factors. This post introduces basic methods for constructing such factors, focusing on statistical learning techniques that estimate how individual stock returns (relative to the market) respond to various economic trends. We use five model types to estimate

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 11/25/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Tuesday, 11/25/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]

    Crypto The Impact of Spoofing on Bitcoin Market Microstructure (John, Li, Liu, and Yang) Spoofing on Coinbase is widespread, with large orders quickly placed and canceled to move Bitcoin prices. It is highly profitable: Each one-unit rise in spoofing volume generates about +27 bps (bid) and +55 bps (ask) in short-term profit with limited risk. At the same time, spoofing widens bidask spreads
  • An updated look at Thanksgiving Week Stats [Quantifiable Edges]

    The time around Thanksgiving has shown some strong tendencies both bullish and bearish. I have discussed them a number of times over the years. In the updated table below I show SPX performance results based on the day of the week around Thanksgiving. The bottom row is the Monday after Thanksgiving week. The top row is the Monday before Thanksgiving. Monday and Tuesday of Thanksgiving week do
  • Momentum factor investing: Evidence and evolution [Alpha Architect]

    Momentum, the tendency for recent winners to keep outperforming and losers to keep lagging, has been one of the most persistent puzzles in finance. This new paper revisits the factor with the largest and most comprehensive dataset ever assembled, spanning more than 150 years and 40 countries. The verdict is clear. Momentum works, across markets, time periods, and portfolio designs. But it also has

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 11/23/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Sunday, 11/23/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Macroeconomics with Gaussian Mixture Models [OS Quant]

    Returns can be viewed as a product of an underlying market regime. This article models those regimes and shows how to extend the model with macroeconomic variables to link regimes to observable economic indicators. Some time ago I read a Two Sigma article on using Gaussian mixture models for regime detection 1. I wanted to understand the math behind these methods and extend them by tying the
  • QuantMinds London 2025 [Turnleaf Analytics]

    Are you on mute? is perhaps the most succinct catchphrase which most comprehensively describes the post-covid landscape of work. Yet, despite the plethora of video conferencing tools out there, there is still something to be said for being there in person. If anything, the sheer volume of virtual interactions means that a real interaction becomes more valuable. If you really want
  • Rethinking Growth Investing: Why Traditional Growth Indices Miss the Mark [Alpha Architect]

    Historically, the finance community (both academics and investment firms) has divided stocks into two categories: cheap and expensive. Initially, the book-to-price ratio was used to allocate stocks into growth (expensive) or value (cheap) indices. Other metrics, such as price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, and price-to-cash flow, are now also commonly used. What was not value was growth and vice

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 11/20/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Thursday, 11/20/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Rhino Strategy Family: From Broken-Wing Butterfly to Genetic Optimization [Deltaray]

    The Rhino Options Strategy is a conservative, brokenwing butterfly income trade with an upside hedge. Rhino is not just a simple trade; its a whole family of related strategies that have evolved over nearly a decade in response to changing market conditions. Monthly, Giant, and Baby Rhino variants coexist alongside variants from other developers like the White Rhino by Randy Schwartzenburg.
  • Dual Momentum & Global Growth Cycle Enhanced [Grzegorz Link]

    The Dual Momentum approach, formalized in Gary Antonacci's 2012 paper[1] and later popularized in his book,[2] is a surprisingly simple yet potent tactical asset allocation strategy. It builds on the fact that assets experience both absolute [time series] momentum, as well as relative [cross-section] momentum, and utilizes both of these effects in its goal of returning better-than-passive
  • Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]

    Asset Allocation Tactical Asset Allocations of Large Asset Managers (Ibert) Large asset managers tactical views closely follow their assessments of global growth and recession risk. When growth prospects deteriorate, they cut equity exposure and increase bond allocations. A move from overweight to underweight equities reduces equity weights by roughly 1.83.2 percentage points. Key takeaway:
  • Switch-Off: Bayesian online changepoint detection [Trading the Breaking]

    Every quantitative trading operation, from a single retail algorithmist to a multi-billion dollar systematic fund, faces an identical, recurring, and fundamental dilemma: When to deactivate a failing strategy. This problem is, in many ways, the only problem that matters for long-term survival. Alpha is finite. All strategies eventually decay. The persistence of a quant fund is not determined by
  • Fractal Market Hypothesis: From Theory to Practice [Relative Value Arbitrage]

    Fractal Market Hypothesis is an alternative framework that models financial markets through long-memory and multi-scale dynamics. There is a growing trend in the industry to incorporate itfirst in analyzing the behavior of underlying assets, and more recently in the pricing of financial derivatives such as futures. In this post, we will examine these developments. Fractal Market Hypothesis:

Recent Quant Links from Quantocracy as of 11/16/2025

This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy as of Sunday, 11/16/2025. To see our most recent links, visit the Quant Mashup. Read on readers!

  • Leveraged ETFs in Asset Allocation: Opportunity or Trap? [Quantpedia]

    In this article, we explore whether it makes sense to incorporate leveraged ETFs into static and dynamic long-only asset allocation strategies. Leveraged ETFs promise amplified exposure to the underlying asset, offering the potential for significantly higher returns during favorable market conditions. However, this comes at the cost of much higher volatility, path-dependency, and the well-known
  • Wordle (TM) and the one simple hack you need to pass funded trader challenges [Investment Idiocy]

    An unusual (but quick) mid month post, as this is a live issue I thought I'd publish this whilst it's relevant. There has been some controversy on X/Twitter about 'pay to play' prop shops (see this thread and this one) and in particular Raen Trading. It's fair to say the industry has a bad name, and perhaps this is unfairly tarnishing what may pass for good actors in this
  • Research Review | 14 November 2025 | Bubble Risk [Capital Spectator]

    Bubble Beliefs Christian Stolborg (Copenhagen Bus. School) and Robin Greenwood (Harvard) October 2025 We study expert beliefs during boom-bust episodes in which highly valued individual US stocks experience a price run-up followed by a crash. As prices surge, analysts forecast exceptional earnings growth and high near-term returns. Short interest stays low. Media coverage rarely mentions the word
  • How to Design a Simple Multi-Timeframe Trend Strategy on Bitcoin [Quantpedia]

    Bitcoin is one of the most widely discussed financial assets of the modern era. Since its inception, it has evolved from a niche digital experiment into a globally recognized investment instrument with institutional adoption and billions in daily trading volume. Despite its inherent volatility, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong long-term growth trajectory, making it an attractive candidate for